ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

Anyone have thoughts about any preperations we should do in Houston. I am very West actually Richmond TX. We should prepare for heavy rains only is my thinking. I am sick and don't really want to think at all. Sorry I sound dumb but need to prepare and then sleep.

I wouldn't worry about any preps. I believe this is going south of BRO...probably about 70-100 miles south of BRO. We will get a lot of moisture...not much else.

[Florida1118]

3rd TC for Mexico. Its their 2004 down there.

[Aric Dunn]

ITs probably up to 65 mph right now..

[Florida1118]

ITs probably up to 65 mph right now..

If She keeps this up the NHC might just up her winds 5-10 mph each Advisory.

[Wthrman13]

Interesting that the 6Z GFDL actually re-intensifies Hermine somewhat over the TX panhandle as it moves into NW OK: a very similar track to TS Erin back in 2007, and we all know what that did

Not saying the same thing is going to happen, and this is with tongue firmly in cheek at this point, but I'm keeping an eye on it

At the very least we should get some decent rain and possibly some low-topped supercells to chase here in OK

[Aric Dunn]

ITs probably up to 65 mph right now..

If She keeps this up the NHC might just up her winds 5-10 mph each Advisory.

it really only has 5pm and 11pm full advisories before its inland.. I say at 2 they bring it up to 60 and maybe more at 5pm... i say 70 or hurricane just before landfall.

[Cyclone1]

3rd TC for Mexico. Its their 2004 down there.

Well, realistically, their 2004 was 2005.

[bob rulz]

3rd TC for Mexico. Its their 2004 down there.

Well, realistically, their 2004 was 2005.

Yes indeed it was....Bret, Gert, Jose, Stan, and Emily (twice).

[masaji79]

Wow, leave it to these Gulf storms. Go to bed a weak depression and wake up to a full fledged tropical storm.

[HurricaneBelle]

3rd TC for Mexico. Its their 2004 down there.

Well, realistically, their 2004 was 2005.

Yes indeed it was....Bret, Gert, Jose, Stan, and Emily (twice).

And most significantly, Wilma.

[cwachal]

Raw T numbers indicate Hurricane strength

[artist]

Raw T numbers indicate Hurricane strength

can you post those?

[wx247]

Interesting that the 6Z GFDL actually re-intensifies Hermine somewhat over the TX panhandle as it moves into NW OK: a very similar track to TS Erin back in 2007, and we all know what that did

Not saying the same thing is going to happen, and this is with tongue firmly in cheek at this point, but I'm keeping an eye on it

At the very least we should get some decent rain and possibly some low-topped supercells to chase here in OK

Ahh... don't mention TS Erin. We got nearly 10" of rain from what was a "back from the grave" Erin. If something similar to that comes on top of the nearly 18" of rain some areas around here received last Thursday then it will look like a lake in the Ozarks!

[Frank2]

Yep, a tricky situation for the NHC since intensity forecasting is not a meteorologists strong suit - hopefully the next recon flight will make it down there (apparently the current flight had to abort due to mechanical problems - don't want to fly in bad weather with an engine that isn't working right)...

[Florida1118]

3rd TC for Mexico. Its their 2004 down there.

Well, realistically, their 2004 was 2005.

Yes indeed it was....Bret, Gert, Jose, Stan, and Emily (twice).

Well yes. I kinda meant 1 spot getting many storms. 2005 was pretty much Central/N Americas 2004. Every state from Texas-SC received TS force winds at least once. Mexico, Ekk, ya I guess that would be their 2004.

[cwachal]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2010 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 23:39:56 N Lon : 95:57:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.1mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.0 4.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.1mb

Center Temp : -71.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[jinftl]

Up to 60 mph at 1pm CDT advisory (out a bit early)...pressure down to 995mb

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT HEADS FOR THE WESTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[Aric Dunn]

motion is between NW and NNW over the last 4 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

the latest doppler velocities show only about 53-55 kts which supports 60mph. since recon never got out there they likely went of radar estimates and its makes sense. the overall convective structure continues to improve pretty quickly and it seems a broken eye wall is beginning to form so a hurricane is looking quite possible..

[Evac4]

Nevermind. Y'all beat me to it.

It's frustrating that TWC is just blowing this off and barely mentioning it. I saw a flash of the Intermediate and they just clicked and kept going, talking about other things. I know they're less than ideal for getting the best tropical information, but it's all most people look at and they should be talking about this more and mention that it could be more than just rain.