ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[TexasF6]

tropical systems tend not to move in a straight line? and they do wobble, this one was moving NNE yesterday, but is now moving NNW IMO. A shift, a center redeveloping--could put this closer to TEXAS. So I watch every move and wobble with great interest.

[PauleinHouston]

I'll state the obvious -- wow, that is A LOT of moisture headed our way!

I think you guys in Austin are in for more than your fair share. Houston's looking good for a good amount as well, but there's no F/Flood watches up for our area as yet, as opposed to CenTex

[vbhoutex]

A few....but hermine should steer clear of the main oil rig areas

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/9762 ... atorms.jpg

Are there any oil or gas rigs along Hermaine's path?

What that map doesn't show is the rigs that the Mexican firms have in the BOC and along the coast (if there are any along the Mexican coast). I remember some in the BOC because of the huge spill they had years ago.

[jinftl]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
COASTLINE OF SOUTH TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTH NORTHWEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY...THEN
INTO WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING CELLS ARE
LIKELY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE TRAINING PRECIPITATION OCCURS. SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE
COAST AND INTERSTATE 10 LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD THIS BOUNDARY
ACTUALLY DEVELOP...IT COULD BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
INTENSE RAINFALL LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION

I'll state the obvious -- wow, that is A LOT of moisture headed our way!

I think you guys in Austin are in for more than your fair share. Houston's looking good for a good amount as well, but there's no F/Flood watches up for our area as yet, as opposed to CenTex

[Portastorm]

Yep think so. The moisture return must be more vigorous than anticipated as we already have showers developing inland along the I-35 corridor and today was supposed to be sunny with only a slight chance of rain.

[srainhoutx]

I'll state the obvious -- wow, that is A LOT of moisture headed our way!

I think you guys in Austin are in for more than your fair share. Houston's looking good for a good amount as well, but there's no F/Flood watches up for our area as yet, as opposed to CenTex

HGX laid the ground work to extend the Flash Flood Watch further eastward with updated guidance. Also the current wording is worrisome with talk of a boundary from our Coastal Areas northward to I-10. Things appear to be rather fluid this morning, so expect changes as the day wears on.

[KWT]

Flooding is going to be obviously a major problem in the Rio Grande region and S.Texas in general again as this system comes northwards...

However this time flooding isn't the only risk, I think there is probably a much better then 50% chance of a hurricane from this.

[jinftl]

Excerpt from latest NWS Houston/Galveston Discussion:

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FF WATCH GENERALLY WEST OF A FREEPORT TO COLUMBUS LINE FOR
TONIGHT AS A DISTINCT AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE SETS UP IN THE REGION BETWEEN
I-10 AND THE COAST WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INTENSE
RAINFALL. SUSPECT THIS AREA MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTH AND
EAST ON TUES...MAYBE TO A COLLEGE STATION TO LIBERTY LINE BUT WILL
LET THE DAYSHIFT MAKE THAT CALL AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NOW.

[TexasF6]

We sure need some rain in Austin...this was supposed to be a rainy week anyways with a cold front and low stalling over us, hello Hermine!!!!!

[Portastorm]

Flooding is going to be obviously a major problem in the Rio Grande region and S.Texas in general again as this system comes northwards...

However this time flooding isn't the only risk, I think there is probably a much better then 50% chance of a hurricane from this.

Also with an intensifying system as it heads onto land ... I would think we'll see some tornadoes as well.

[TexasF6]

Austin's airport had a few small planes flipped by Hurricane Allens's angry twisters......

[srainhoutx]

Flooding is going to be obviously a major problem in the Rio Grande region and S.Texas in general again as this system comes northwards...

However this time flooding isn't the only risk, I think there is probably a much better then 50% chance of a hurricane from this.

Also with an intensifying system as it heads onto land ... I would think we'll see some tornadoes as well.

SPC:

...TX...

RECENTLY NAMED TS HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND INTO DEEP S TX TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM INLAND...AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[KWT]

Without a doubt, these sorts of close up system tend to spring some surprises as they head into landfall for sure!

Impacts probably as strong as you'd find with a 65-75kts hurricane I suspect, hopefully people in the path take the risk of a possible hurricane seriously and the NHC get hurricane warnings up pronto.

[jinftl]

Agree...this is an evolving event....i would expect significant changes even with the next advisory in an hour....ts warnings extended northward towards matagorda or freeport. We may even see some area in a hurricane watch.

Things appear to be rather fluid this morning, so expect changes as the day wears on.

[HURAKAN]

06/1145 UTC 22.6N 95.4W T3.0/3.0 HERMINE -- Atlantic

45 knots

[PauleinHouston]

I guess my prev post about FF watches was a bit vague. Yes, we did begin the guidance and Harris/Galv counties not in as yet, but I expect it will be soon enough.

I think there will be big changes once recon gets down there.

[KWT]

We do need to see a hurricane warning issue IMO, esp as we could see this landfall in 24-30hrs and if it keeps going the way its going a hurricane is very possible.

Will be interesting to see how recon goes...

[TexasF6]

Raining in Austin....

[Portastorm]

Raining in Austin....

I think that's a result more of the ULL in south Texas than Hermine. Of course, tomorrow will be a different story.

[wxman57]

I think Hurricane Hermine will move ashore just north of Brownsville tomorrow morning. Fairly confident landfall won't be north of Corpus.