ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

Could be some changes ahead as there is some concern from NHC regarding track and motion of Hermine...

Corpus Christi...snip...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...TRACK OF WHAT IS NOW
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF...AND INTO MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BASED ON
COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CRP CWA ARE
BEING HELD OFF...HOWEVER IF TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN NEXT
PACKAGE THEN WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.

[Nimbus]

Glad its forecast to be inland fairly soon that big burst of convection didn't give me the warm fuzzys.

[PauleinHouston]

Best tracks since being picked up have it moving a full degree of longitude East. Based on steering layers, I'd give this some more time over water than the general consensus and take it possibly North of TX/Mexico border just a bit as a strong TS...just IMHO.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

[wxman57]

Slightly irrelevant, but how do you pronounce Hermine? Like Hermione without the 'o' or as "her-mean"?

It's pronounced her-MEEN, as per NHC name pronunciation guide at nhc.noaa.gov.

[Cryomaniac]

Slightly irrelevant, but how do you pronounce Hermine? Like Hermione without the 'o' or as "her-mean"?

It's pronounced her-MEEN, as per NHC name pronunciation guide at nhc.noaa.gov.

Thanks.

[PauleinHouston]

What's your take on Hermine Wx57? If I remember right, you're in Pearland area...I'm just across the freeway in League City.

Appears to be organizing much better in last few frames...
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2

Mexico radar sites down..surprise surprise. Long range BRO radar...
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

I take it recon flying this today?

[tailgater]

I'm sure the NHC has seen this little ULL over southern Texas.

[srainhoutx]

That ULL is rather weak and could likely assist in ventilation with Hermine. Looking more impressive with each sat image this morning.

[jinftl]

Looks like Hermine is becoming a very formidable-looking tropical storm....any chance she reaches Cat 1?

[KWT]

Any decent northerly motion compared to what is expected by the models will bring a landfall into S.Texas...and if that happens then a hurricane would certainly be possible.

Right now I expect 55-60kts into N.Mexico but we will see!

[wx247]

This snippet from the Local Hurricane Statement out of Brownsville points just how much rain is expected:

RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[tailgater]

Looks like from IR loop? that the NNW movement has started.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

very decent storm

[Macrocane]

This is an unofficial opinion, refer to the NHC for official information

I agree that it looks to be organizing fairly quick, it may make landfall as a 60 kt TS or 65 kt hurricane if the trend continues.

[KWT]

Looks superb at the moment, a hurricane isn't out of the question esp if the system does get a little further north then expected.

[jinftl]

Right now, all the t.s. force winds are on the eastern half of the storm....is this the result of shear or just what you typically see with a developing t.s.?



The NHC forecast calls for the windfield to remain primarily stacked to the right of the center:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.


FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

[KWT]

Thats pretty typical of a developing tropical storm really, if it gets stronger then what is forecasted you'll see the winds begin to increase...

Don't be surprised if this one enters RI later today...

[PauleinHouston]

Macro/KWT, I agree completely. Very quick organization and I too wouldn't be surprised with a high end TS/low end Hurricane with this one. As for landfall, my "guess" is TX/Mexico border.

[Portastorm]

It seems that if anything should form, it's Mexico bound.

That is what the 0z GFS and Euro suggest. The NAM however keeps wanting to develop a surface low and even the 12z run takes it to 989 mb.

I know, I know ... it's the NAM.

I can't help but repost this, a post of mine from Saturday morning on the old 90L thread about this storm ... I guess the NAM wasn't so crazy after all, eh?! I might add that those NAM runs had it pegged more north, like the currently progged track.