ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

This storm better not be bombing out already.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

pressures are falling and winds are increasing, I know what you mean by bombing out but I have a feeling about this GOM event.

[southerngale]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

Wow lots of nasty color

looks like its more offshore.

I wanted to post a static image so your post makes sense later. Guys... PLEASE upload sat images and model maps before posting them.

http://tinypic.com/
http://imageshack.us/
http://www.imagehosting.com/

[KWT]

Not surprised to see this become Hermine at all, the system has decent cloud tops, maybe a little linear in nature but thats what you tend to get in early stage systems like this anyway...

[WeatherGuesser]

Considering where it is, I thought they might do a special update but I don't see one yet.

[HurricaneHunter914]

AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L

TS Hermine!

If those coordinates are correct, then that means over the past several hours, Hermine has been moving NE, not N. The NHC is going to have to shift the track to the right at the next advisory.

[Steve]

Looks like she could be one of those systems that could get to mid-grade TS. Hermine also continues to reinforce the idea of a season with a western-bias component partially telegraphed by the E-W moving, circular upper lows earlier on that some posters were calling season killers. With some of the synoptics of 2010, you expect to see more than the average number of storms including weaker systems. You expect at least some western bias in the tracks and in development. So far, on target. 8 named storms, all of them tracked west of 60, about 11 weeks to go. We should easily hit the teens now. <--- preceding all the opinion of the poster only

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2010_ ... ry_map.png

[southerngale]

AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L

TS Hermine!

If those coordinates are correct, then that means over the past several hours, Hermine has been moving NE, not N. The NHC is going to have to shift the track to the right at the next advisory.

From earlier:

AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 25, 1003, TD

[HurricaneHunter914]

So more of a NNE movement then?

[Steve]

Maybe for now without a well defined center or anything. NHC expects N then NW which would make sense given the predicted upper pattern.

System is a more southerly version of '98 Frances (analog year). NHC doesn't expect Hermine to get as far up the coast, and the CONUS setup is very different. The general location, date, etc. have their similarities.

[Shuriken]

This storm better not be bombing out already.

Remember Humberto -- and Hermine has a LOT more running room.

[Steve]

NAM 06Z at 36hrs SIM RADAR has low inland and in the Hill Country. That might be a little fast for Tuesday afternoon Unless it's just losing focus with it. It definitely interrupts the flow and brings a tropical surge into Texas though.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[tailgater]

Sleeply HUH is it a TS already NHC has TD

[WeatherGuesser]

Code: Select all

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al102010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060640
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
       TEN, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2010, TS, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102010
AL, 10, 2010090406,   , BEST,   0, 184N,  958W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090412,   , BEST,   0, 186N,  957W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090418,   , BEST,   0, 187N,  956W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090500,   , BEST,   0, 189N,  956W,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 10, 2010090506,   , BEST,   0, 191N,  956W,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090512,   , BEST,   0, 195N,  957W,  25, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  160,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090518,   , BEST,   0, 200N,  955W,  25, 1004, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600,   , BEST,   0, 204N,  951W,  30, 1003, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  150,  20,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, S,
AL, 10, 2010090606,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  948W,  35, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ,   90,   60,    0,    0, 1007,  120,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, M,

Trying to figure out how to read these; changed to TS at 0600 on 09/06/2010. I see the coordinates have gone from 18.4N 95.8W to 21.1N 94.8W which tells me NNE more or less with a wind speed of 35.

But where is the forward speed?

[WeatherGuesser]

Sleeply HUH is it a TS already NHC has TD

Should be up any minute now.

[Brent]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.

[WeatherGuesser]

400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

[WeatherGuesser]

Reuters, AP, CNNi and local media have all picked it up.

[Cryomaniac]

Slightly irrelevant, but how do you pronounce Hermine? Like Hermione without the 'o' or as "her-mean"?

[mpic]

Channel 13 Houston saying coastal flooding here from 1pm today through tomorrow with 1-3 inches of rain. Glad to finally get some moisture here...we need it badly.