ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Florida1118]

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 16(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

LA PESCA MX 34 X 14(14) 14(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
LA PESCA MX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

TAMPICO MX 34 X 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)

TUXPAN MX 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

Looks like Brownsville has a 19% chance as of 11pm for TS winds.

[wxgirl69]

How come the home page of Storm2k shows no active storms?
Also, I heard earlier they thought this may have been moving a little to the East.
Have we concluded that it was the sat imagery giving false sense of movement?

[Shuriken]

is this thing heading towards mexico for sure?

I see no reason at all to suspect that it is at all. Atmospheric sampling is rather poor over the region..

NNE movement was firmly brisk all day on VIS-sat, and apparently has been so for at least 24hrs previously (as the system formed either over land or in the eastern Pacific south of Mexico).

[wxman57]

With a ridge building to its NE, it should turn NW and move inland between Tampico, MX and Browsville tomorrow night. Don't think it'll have much chance at becoming a hurricane. But it should spread VERY HEAVY rain well north of the landfall point, all the way to the lower to mid TX coast tomorrow/Tuesday.

[Aric Dunn]

nearly out of radar range..

[vbhoutex]

How come the home page of Storm2k shows no active storms?
Also, I heard earlier they thought this may have been moving a little to the East.
Have we concluded that it was the sat imagery giving false sense of movement?

That map has to be updated at the site it is on and apparently they haven't done it yet. We do not control that map.
We do post Invests, TDs, TSs, Hurricanes as soon as we have official confirmation whether the map has anything showing on it or not.

[Shuriken]

With a ridge building to its NE, it should turn NW and move inland between Tampico, MX and Browsville tomorrow night.

For the time being, the NNE movement appears related to probably mid-level steering associated with the trough running from Mexico all the way up the eastern seaboard:

http://www.atmos.uiuc.edu/weather/tree/ ... tnoamenhir

Don't think it'll have much chance at becoming a hurricane.

Any northward-moving system over a tropical Gulf with a closed circulation has more than a minimal chance of becoming a hurricane within 24hrs. If NNE movement continues, by tomorrow at this same time, the storm will be smack in the central Gulf with another full day to go before hitting land again....maybe more if forward NNE movement slows down, then stalls as the trough pinches off, with the storm basically stationary before assuming a WNW drift back toward probably Texas (the case if the front digging down the Rockies right now doesn't lift the whole thing up).

[Florida1118]

With a ridge building to its NE, it should turn NW and move inland between Tampico, MX and Browsville tomorrow night.

For the time being, the NNE movement appears related to probably mid-level steering associated with the trough running from Mexico all the way up the eastern seaboard:

http://www.atmos.uiuc.edu/weather/tree/ ... tnoamenhir

Don't think it'll have much chance at becoming a hurricane.

Any northward-moving system over a tropical Gulf with a closed circulation has more than a minimal chance of becoming a hurricane within 24hrs. If NNE movement continues, by tomorrow at this same time, the storm will be smack in the central Gulf with another full day to go before hitting land again....maybe more if forward NNE movement slows down, then stalls as the trough pinches off, with the storm basically stationary before assuming a WNW drift back toward probably Texas (the case if the front digging down the Rockies right now doesn't lift the whole thing up).

The NHC is currently giving this a whopping 5% of becoming a hurricane. Really I have to agree with them. Time is just not on its side.

[dixiebreeze]

05/2345 UTC 20.6N 95.4W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

[Wx_Warrior]

Florida....you won't win this argument!!! LOL

[Shuriken]

The NHC is currently giving this a whopping 5% of becoming a hurricane. Really I have to agree with them. Time is just not on its side.

Well, of course it wouldn't be -- if it were moving northwest...which it isn't doing. Given that northeast movement was not predicted previously, it is reasonable to assume the current data-set of environmental factors going into the models is obsolete or incomplete.

[Wx_Warrior]

They know just a tad more than you and I.

[dwsqos2]

Storms in the Bay of Campeche often have their inflow robbed by overland diurnal convection. Despite the nice 200 mb winds, I have to wonder if this occurs once again. If so, Hermine will have to wait.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Florida1118]

The NHC is currently giving this a whopping 5% of becoming a hurricane. Really I have to agree with them. Time is just not on its side.

Well, of course it wouldn't be -- if it were moving northwest...which it isn't doing. Given that northeast movement was not predicted previously, it is reasonable to assume the current data-set of environmental factors going into the models is obsolete or incomplete.

Well that is true but just a hr. ago the NHC was seeing N, and their track shows it will soon curve NW. If it does become a Hurricane, I will not ever question you or Wx ever again for your knowledge of the guessing. lol

[Weatherfreak000]

Storms in the Bay of Campeche often have their inflow robbed by overland diurnal convection. Despite the nice 200 mb winds, I have to wonder if this occurs once again. If so, Hermine will have to wait.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I can't help but notice your pushing naysayer agenda dwsqos2. you wanna put some money on that "prediction"?


Also, florida that REALLY is funny.

[dwsqos2]

I happened with Lorenzo 2007. I happened with Bret in 1999. Both of these storms eventually recovered. I would argue that it happened with TD 2. Honestly, overland convection hindered Alex earlier this year. It's really pretty common. Pressures have risen a bit in the area. I honestly don't know, and no I am not willing to put money on these wonderful forecasts.

[Shuriken]

The NHC is currently giving this a whopping 5% of becoming a hurricane. Really I have to agree with them. Time is just not on its side.

Well, of course it wouldn't be -- if it were moving northwest...which it isn't doing. Given that northeast movement was not predicted previously, it is reasonable to assume the current data-set of environmental factors going into the models is obsolete or incomplete.

Well that is true but just a hr. ago the NHC was seeing N, and their track shows it will soon curve NW. If it does become a Hurricane, I will not ever question you or Wx ever again for your knowledge of the guessing. lol

Note that the NHC does not (normally) alter track forecasts until new model runs are in the offing, and that models are fed a poor data-set from that region of the globe -- a situation that will remain so until aircraft get in the area.

[dwsqos2]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Well, I may have to eat the speculation fairly soon. Winds have increased rather rapidly at 42055; the 10-minute winds have been as high as 30 knots.

Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
10:50 pm SSE ( 151 deg ) 24.9 kts
10:40 pm SE ( 142 deg ) 24.3 kts
10:30 pm SSE ( 162 deg ) 29.3 kts
10:20 pm SSE ( 150 deg ) 30.7 kts
10:10 pm SW ( 214 deg ) 11.1 kts
10:00 pm SE ( 146 deg ) 10.9 kts

But, note the supplemental obs.

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CDT) WSPD WDIR
10:20 pm 35.4 kts SSE ( 161 deg true )

The NHC may deem these unrepresentative, but who knows.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[gatorcane]

Another system for Mexico. Seems to be a recurring theme for systems developing in the gom this year.