ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

yep I figured they would upgrade... and 1003 seems right considering the near by buoy..

[cycloneye]

Updated 00z Best Track

AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 25, 1003, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[CrazyC83]

I think this has the potential to start RI'ing if a full core can get together.

[Florida1118]

And we thought Gaston was the only play 2 days ago...If it has another 24-36 hrs it should be able to be Hermine

[Aric Dunn]

And we thought Gaston was the only play 2 days ago...If it has another 24-36 hrs it should be able to be Hermine

this wont take that long to become a TS.. at this rate tomorrow morning it should be.

[wxgirl69]

I am interested to see what this thing is going to do.. I guess we should be seeing an update soon form the NHC???????

[Florida1118]

I am interested to see what this thing is going to do.. I guess we should be seeing an update soon form the NHC???????

There busy people. They have to prepare the graphics and it takes time. Any moment though

[cycloneye]

I am interested to see what this thing is going to do.. I guess we should be seeing an update soon form the NHC???????

There busy people. They have to prepare the graphics and it takes time. Any moment though

And to prepare the watches and warnings.

[ConvergenceZone]

is this thing heading towards mexico for sure?

[Aric Dunn]

is this thing heading towards mexico for sure?

yeah that general direction... but southern texas is not out of the question..

[Florida1118]

I am interested to see what this thing is going to do.. I guess we should be seeing an update soon form the NHC???????

There busy people. They have to prepare the graphics and it takes time. Any moment though

And to prepare the watches and warnings.

Oh yes. Im sure it takes time to contact the Mexico officials for them to issue their Watches/Warnings.

[wxgirl69]

Yeah, I figured that they are busy..... I am trying to see if this thing is moving N, NE or NNE..
I shall wait patiently and listen to all the information.

[Florida1118]

WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

[Brent]

[Florida1118]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 060248
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES...
BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

[wxgirl69]

ok - moving North per the NHC...

[Florida1118]

- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 3 13 29 50 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 41 20 38 40 32 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 57 72 46 30 17 NA NA
HURRICANE 1 5 3 2 1 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 3 2 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 1 X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA NA

50mph not bad

[Aric Dunn]

all signs point to strengthening pretty quickly..

[CrazyC83]

Could this bomb out quickly like Humberto did in 2007?

[Florida1118]

Could this bomb out quickly like Humberto did in 2007?

Never Impossible but IMO I just dont think this makes it above 60mph. Still respectable, but no Hurricane.