ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm HERMINE - Discussion

[lrak]

Thanks, Aric Dunn! Cool loop indeed!

[Florida1118]

I dont see this more than a 50MPH so thats good for Tx. / Mexico. JMO of course.

problem is the environment is good for strengthening and it has about 36 hours over water.. just have to wait and see..

mmmm...I was thinking 14hrs but I can see 36hrs is much better...Ya that changes things.

[blazess556]

Aric, do you have an updated loop? thanks

[Aric Dunn]

aric where do you see this making landfall and how strong?

it could probably get as far north as the TX/MEX border. its seems from the current environment that we could see it strengthen pretty quickly it may try to get to a hurricane especially if this N/NNE motion continues long enough as it will keep it off shore longer.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, do you have an updated loop? thanks

if a couple minutes waiting on the next image..

[South Texas Storms]

and what could i expect in san antonio if that happens? just lots of rain and a little wind?

[Aric Dunn]

and what could i expect in san antonio if that happens? just lots of rain and a little wind?

rain for sure and probably not much wind at that point

[South Texas Storms]

ok thanks. im interested to see how this thing develops in the next 36 hours or so.

[Aric Dunn]

[CrazyC83]

Is that a partial eyewall trying to form?

[vbhoutex]

I'm not so sure we are seeing a NNE movement. I think it is essentially N and what may be making it look NNE is the radar returns from the E side are much weaker(blocked?). I'm not a radar afficiondo so feel free to correct me. If it has an Easterly component it is just barely East of North imo.
I haven't been on much today so I haven't followed it closely but it sure appears to be consolidating quickly. An upgrade by 11pm would not be a surprise and yes I did say by 11pm.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm confused, I see a NE circulation and a NW circulation..wierd

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not so sure we are seeing a NNE movement. I think it is essentially N and what may be making it look NNE is the radar returns from the E side are much weaker(blocked?). I'm not a radar afficiondo so feel free to correct me. If it has an Easterly component it is just barely East of North imo.
I haven't been on much today so I haven't followed it closely but it sure appears to be consolidating quickly. An upgrade by 11pm would not be a surprise and yes I did say by 11pm.

[southerngale]

Models say Mexico. 90L says Louisiana.


Yeah, I know it should be short term.

[Aric Dunn]

Models say Mexico. 90L says Louisiana.


Yeah, I know it's should be short term.

lol yeah I think its not out of the possibility that southern TEX is in the window

[blazess556]

TD:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102010
AL, 10, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 199N, 957W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[dixiebreeze]

NRL has 1003 mb now.

[vbhoutex]

I'm confused, I see a NE circulation and a NW circulation..wierd

If I understand what you are saying you are seeing what appears to be another circulation SW of the LLC that is going in the opposite direction? If that is it then I think what you are seeing is the moutainous terrain in that area interfering with the radar returns and making an illusion of that circulation. Or am I totally misunderstanding what you are saying? Are you looking at radar or satellite?

[Aric Dunn]

its starting to get too far from the radar site.. but still looks to be organizing rather quickly..

[Migle]

So we now have Tropical Depression 10 it looks like.