ATL: GASTON - Models

[TwisterFanatic]

:uarrow: It's that time of year here...the trend is west so I think in the next few runs were going to tighten things up a bit more and have a better idea once passing the islands where gaston might go..

That's 3 models today showing a storm in the Florida Straits (GFS, Canadian and the Nogaps which has it off of eastern Cuba)

The trend has been west and no recurve before the islands

I agree that theres a west trend, but those three models aren't the best and really none of them can be to good right now without a center to go off of.

There is a well defined center..

[ColinDelia]

Oh crap.
Thanks for the descriptive summary Caneseddy. Haven't had a chance to look at models yet.
Anybody want to venture a guess on how accurate an Atlantic high forecast is this far out?
I guess We'll be praying for another trough.

Pretty accurate until 180 hours but they can get considerably out of whack past that point.
When the 500 mb anomaly correlation is greater than .6 you generally have the positions of the
troughs and ridges correct. last years data showed the GFS greater than .6 until 7.5 days. Obviously this
doesn't apply to a forecast track of a TC but just the general position of the ridges and troughs.

[x-y-no]

I agree that theres a west trend, but those three models aren't the best and really none of them can be to good right now without a center to go off of.

Well, I'll grant you the NOGAPS isn't worth much in the tropics, but I can't agree with you about the GFS and Canadian. IIRC, the Canadian was the best track performer last year, and GFS did pretty well on Danielle/Earl/Fiona (although Fiona didn't get absorbed, but track was pretty good.)

[bamajammer4eva]

Lol, Pensacola on September 16th (the day Ivan hit)

Looks like Gaston has siblings on that map as well-just saying

[BigB0882]

Watching this closely now! Scary run for the Gulf states.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 041835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100904  1800   100905  0600   100905  1800   100906  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.6N  46.6W   17.1N  48.8W   17.6N  51.4W   17.9N  54.2W
BAMD    16.6N  46.6W   17.0N  48.7W   17.2N  51.2W   17.2N  54.0W
BAMM    16.6N  46.6W   17.0N  48.3W   17.2N  50.1W   17.2N  52.2W
LBAR    16.6N  46.6W   17.3N  48.7W   18.1N  51.3W   18.8N  54.2W
SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          40KTS          48KTS
DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          40KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100906  1800   100907  1800   100908  1800   100909  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  57.2W   18.9N  62.9W   19.7N  67.2W   20.8N  70.1W
BAMD    17.2N  57.0W   17.3N  62.6W   17.8N  66.7W   18.8N  68.9W
BAMM    17.3N  54.5W   17.6N  58.8W   18.7N  62.4W   20.2N  65.1W
LBAR    19.3N  57.1W   19.6N  62.9W   19.1N  67.7W   19.5N  70.3W
SHIP        58KTS          77KTS          93KTS         107KTS
DSHP        58KTS          77KTS          93KTS         107KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.6N LONCUR =  46.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  15.9N LONM12 =  44.2W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  15.0N LONM24 =  42.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO loses it.

[Frank2]

Right - my thinking is that almost all of the models are moving it west (or losing it entirely as per the EURO) because of the large TUTT/ULL that it's going to run into, leaving it a weak wave as it moves over the larger islands...

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

Right - my thinking is that almost all of the models are moving it west (or losing it entirely as per the EURO) because of the large TUTT/ULL that it's going to run into, leaving it a weak wave as it moves over the larger islands...

Frank

Yea this may not BOMB until it gets further into the Western Carib...

[cycloneye]

I notice a shift now with the latest runs to just north of Puerto Rico instead of south.

[OURAGAN]

For the lesser antilles, as the models say, it will be a big fish, they initialize Gaston more north, they don't agree about the SW track anymore, may be the ridge is not as strong at they were thinking.

[southerngale]

For the lesser antilles, as the models say, it will be a big fish, they initialize Gaston more north, they don't agree about the SW track anymore, may be the ridge is not as strong at they were thinking.

It's only a fish if it hits no land at all.

[msbee]

the models are confusing me. what is your best guesstimate..any of you...about when or if this might be in my neighborhood?

[TwisterFanatic]

For the lesser antilles, as the models say, it will be a big fish, they initialize Gaston more north, they don't agree about the SW track anymore, may be the ridge is not as strong at they were thinking.

That makes no sense. Its only a fish if it hits no land at all. Looks like it going to hit somewhere in the islands so Gaston would not be a fish. Just like Earl was not a fish also..

[caneseddy]

12Z UKMET keeps it west as a weak storm and in 120 hours impacting Jamaica

12Z GFDL has Gaston impacting northern portion of Hispaniola as a hurricane after passing north of Puerto Rico

12Z Euro loses it

The GFS ensembles are split between a camp going north of the islands into the Bahamas while the other split are going over the Greater Antilles islands (PR, DR, etc)

12Z Canadian is identical to the 12Z GFS in having Gaston in the Bahamas after passing close to Hispaniola

[cycloneye]

they initialize Gaston more north, they don't agree about the SW track anymore, may be the ridge is not as strong at they were thinking.

I agree on that. If it continues to move wnw, the better for the islands. I am not sold on a wsw dip.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12Z UKMET keeps it west as a weak storm and in 120 hours impacting Jamaica

12Z GFDL has Gaston impacting northern portion of Hispaniola as a hurricane after passing north of Puerto Rico

12Z Euro loses it

The GFS ensembles are split between a camp going north of the islands into the Bahamas while the other split are going over the Greater Antilles islands (PR, DR, etc)

12Z Canadian is identical to the 12Z GFS in having Gaston in the Bahamas after passing close to Hispaniola

For the CMC & GFS no more storms please! If it goes that way let it pass out to sea.

[Dean4Storms]

The Euro has had a history early on this year of losing storms, it did so with Earl.

[caneseddy]

The Euro has had a history early on this year of losing storms, it did so with Earl.

Don't forget it also busted with Fiona when it had it as a hurricane heading towards the East Coast while the GFS and other models had Fiona recurving and not being a big storm..just sayin

[fasterdisaster]

The Euro has been absolutely awful this season.