ATL: GASTON - Models

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

at 156 hrs

[caneseddy]

At 156 hours approaching north coast of Dominican Republic

The storm GFS develops behind still chugging along at 15 latitude with no increase in latitude

[caneseddy]

At 162 emerging off the north coast of DR directly south of Turks and Caicos

[caneseddy]

At 168 in the SE Bahamas

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS at 174 hrs

[gatorcane]

Still a fairly progressive pattern across north America as depicted by the gfs in this run. There is a ridge wedged in-between though. Wonder how far west in the se Bahamas it gets in this run?

[caneseddy]

00Z GFS at 174 hrs

Gaston is way west from where it was depicted emerging into the Atlantic earlier today

[BigB0882]

I will be interested to see if this is the beginning of the 2010 West trend! It is already a good deal west of the last GFS run so if this continues for the next 5 days then who knows where Gaston may end up!

[caneseddy]

At 180 Gaston reintensifying and moving WNW in the SE Bahamas

At 190 seems to be be moving a little bit of north

Also, GFS is depicting a storm along 15 degrees behing Gaston...Igor maybe?; it has had that storm along 15 degrees so far since merging from Africa

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

180 hrs

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like it might miss the weakness on that run...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS 192 hrs (Look at that westward moving hurricane in the Central Atlantic!)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS 204 hrs

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, at 00Z GFS 204 hrs, Gaston running out of time to recurve....

[BigB0882]

At 204 hours I see a H Northeast of Gaston. What will that do, if anything?

[caneseddy]

At 228, Gaston seems to be recurving

Yep seems like Gaston is a recurver although way west from where it was this morning

Edit: at 264 GFS seems to have both Gaston and the other storm recurving

At 300 Gaston is bye bye and the other storm behind seems to be recurve as well

At 312, Gaston landfalls in Nova Scotia

[gatorcane]

Okay we are out to 252 hours now and losing resolution. Clearly this run is more west than the last run. It's interesting that the gfs basically stalls this in the Bahamas and just east of southern Florida for about 48+ hours. It is not rapidly shooting it northward north of Hispaniola this run. I see some sleepy nights ahead on this one folks. Also interesting system right behind this one which quickly catches up to gaston. It's like Earl and Fiona but much more west this time.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS 228 hrs

[ROCK]

another swing by the GFS I see....18z out in the ALT now 12z is way west....interesting....still hard to find a consensus right now after 144hr.....what we all know is that the islands and PR are in the line of fire. Still no certainy after that....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS 252 hrs