ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

I still wonder how King TUTT there is gonna play into all this. Looks like a ULL is forming near 20N, 60W that should move SW into the NE Caribbean.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's back to TD Gaston...

NHC currently only giving it a 50% chance of come back..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That's actually not true. They give themselves a 50% chance of re-designating Gaston a TD within the next 48 hrs only (they control the upgrade). In my opinion, Gaston is far more of a TD than Fiona presently is (and I don't think Fiona is a TS). I don't think Fiona even qualifies for TD status now. It's just a matter of when the NHC decides to resume advisories, as I think think redevelopment chances are 95-100%. Gaston could be reclassified at any time now, probably TS by Sunday.

I've often thought that it would be great for an independent agency to control all upgrades/downgrades just based upon the meteorology of the situation. I wonder how an independent agency would classify Gaston and Fiona? When I was talking to Bill Read at the last AMS meeting in Tuscon, I said the one thing that was most frustrating about the NHC was the inconsistency in classification. I think he's been working to correct that. More work to be done, though.

[Battlebrick]

This may be a stupid question, but if this reforms, will it be called Gaston or Hermine?

[Vortex]

18Z about to roll...Whats the good ole GFS got for us this evening....

[fasterdisaster]

This may be a stupid question, but if this reforms, will it be called Gaston or Hermine?

Unless another low merges with it (which is unlikely/impossible at this point), it will still be Gaston.

[Acral]

It will be Gaston

[Migle]

Yeah, This will be Gaston once it comes back

[apocalypt-flyer]

I've often thought that it would be great for an independent agency to control all upgrades/downgrades just based upon the meteorology of the situation. I wonder how an independent agency would classify Gaston and Fiona? When I was talking to Bill Read at the last AMS meeting in Tuscon, I said the one thing that was most frustrating about the NHC was the inconsistency in classification. I think he's been working to correct that. More work to be done, though.

I do agree, some of the classifications or upgrades seem a bit off, not necessarily random but the Gaston/Fiona issue is a nice example when one storm looks more organised than another but the classification would lead you to believe something else.

[ROCK]

18Z about to roll...Whats the good ole GFS got for us this evening....

Probably a western solution into MX....

[Migle]

Looks like it's back to TD Gaston...

NHC currently only giving it a 50% chance of come back..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That's actually not true. They give themselves a 50% chance of re-designating Gaston a TD within the next 48 hrs only (they control the upgrade). In my opinion, Gaston is far more of a TD than Fiona presently is (and I don't think Fiona is a TS). I don't think Fiona even qualifies for TD status now. It's just a matter of when the NHC decides to resume advisories, as I think think redevelopment chances are 95-100%. Gaston could be reclassified at any time now, probably TS by Sunday.

I've often thought that it would be great for an independent agency to control all upgrades/downgrades just based upon the meteorology of the situation. I wonder how an independent agency would classify Gaston and Fiona? When I was talking to Bill Read at the last AMS meeting in Tuscon, I said the one thing that was most frustrating about the NHC was the inconsistency in classification. I think he's been working to correct that. More work to be done, though.

Your not bashing the NHC right?

[JTD]

I think the NHC does a fine job and I wouldn't want anyone other them issuing forecasts and designations or downgrades in the Atlantic basin and certainly not a private sector entity.

No one does it better than them.

I love you NHC.

[MGC]

I think this system to close to TD status....kinda wondering if the NHC is waiting for Earl to get out of the way before concentrating their efforts on Gaston......looks like a pretty strong ridge is forming to the disturbances north so a general west track should be fairly certain.......MGC

[HurricaneBelle]

I've often thought that it would be great for an independent agency to control all upgrades/downgrades just based upon the meteorology of the situation. I wonder how an independent agency would classify Gaston and Fiona? When I was talking to Bill Read at the last AMS meeting in Tuscon, I said the one thing that was most frustrating about the NHC was the inconsistency in classification. I think he's been working to correct that. More work to be done, though.

The pattern I've detected is that their classifications will err on the side of their forecasts; if a storm weakens or dissipates before they had forecasted, they're more likely hang on to it (see Fiona), and the converse is true as well (see Gaston). It's an inherent problem when the same entity is in charge of both classification and verification. Call this NHC-bashing if you will, but the conflict of interest can't be disregarded.

[Vortex]

Deep convection forming near the center during the last hour..

[curtadams]

The pattern I've detected is that their classifications will err on the side of their forecasts; if a storm weakens or dissipates before they had forecasted, they're more likely hang on to it (see Fiona), and the converse is true as well (see Gaston). It's an inherent problem when the same entity is in charge of both classification and verification. Call this NHC-bashing if you will, but the conflict of interest can't be disregarded.

I think it's more that they drag their feet on changes, especially upgrades. TDs far in the Atlantic typical have to have dvorak ratings worthy of TS before they get a TD designation.

The oddity in Fiona/Gaston has been their treatment of Gaston. I would normally expect them to have left Gaston a TD when the convection got weak (it never totally went away). With a LLC in place and most models predicting re-strengthening, regeneration at some point was more likely than not and leaving it a TD would avoid the grading changes the NHC dislikes. Fiona have a nice vortex going just a few hours ago and regeneration is certainly possible. It's typical NHC procedure to leave it classified as a cyclone until regeneration is virtually impossible.

[terrapintransit]

NHC currently only giving it a 50% chance of come back..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml[/quote]

That's actually not true. They give themselves a 50% chance of re-designating Gaston a TD within the next 48 hrs only (they control the upgrade). In my opinion, Gaston is far more of a TD than Fiona presently is (and I don't think Fiona is a TS). I don't think Fiona even qualifies for TD status now. It's just a matter of when the NHC decides to resume advisories, as I think think redevelopment chances are 95-100%. Gaston could be reclassified at any time now, probably TS by Sunday.

I've often thought that it would be great for an independent agency to control all upgrades/downgrades just based upon the meteorology of the situation. I wonder how an independent agency would classify Gaston and Fiona? When I was talking to Bill Read at the last AMS meeting in Tuscon, I said the one thing that was most frustrating about the NHC was the inconsistency in classification. I think he's been working to correct that. More work to be done, though.[/quote]


Thanks WXMAN57...I always appreciate your professional opinions.

[wxman57]

Your not bashing the NHC right?

No, I know all of the forecasters there and we're on good terms. They're a great bunch of forecasters. But I do disagree with how some systems are classified. I suppose that there may be some political reasons why Fiona is still classified a TS and Gaston is not a TD. Fiona is near Bermuda, Gaston is in the middle of nowhere. Like I said, I've discussed this with Bill Read.

Let's not get off-topic here (my fault). I do think that you folks in the NE Caribbean may be in for a hurricane next Tue/Wed. This time it may not miss to your north.

[P.K.]

I've often thought that it would be great for an independent agency to control all upgrades/downgrades just based upon the meteorology of the situation. I wonder how an independent agency would classify Gaston and Fiona? When I was talking to Bill Read at the last AMS meeting in Tuscon, I said the one thing that was most frustrating about the NHC was the inconsistency in classification. I think he's been working to correct that. More work to be done, though.

As the RSMC appointed by the WMO this is exactly what the NHC should be (But I also disagree with the classifications sometimes). Other agencies in the region are perfectly entitled to issue advisories etc but the last word has to go to the NHC as the RSMC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

I've often thought that it would be great for an independent agency to control all upgrades/downgrades just based upon the meteorology of the situation. I wonder how an independent agency would classify Gaston and Fiona? When I was talking to Bill Read at the last AMS meeting in Tuscon, I said the one thing that was most frustrating about the NHC was the inconsistency in classification. I think he's been working to correct that. More work to be done, though.

As the RSMC appointed by the WMO this is exactly what the NHC should be (But I also disagree with the classifications sometimes). Other agencies in the region are perfectly entitled to issue advisories etc but the last word has to go to the NHC as the RSMC.

It seems I'm not alone in the disagreement!!