ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Frank2]

SHIPS brings everything to 97 knots in 120 hours (lol)...

Well, it's something to keep everyone here up all night for the next couple of days...

I was up and down overnight to see the CNN and TWC live coverage, but in the end it was a non-event for everyone involved...

Frank

[terrapintransit]

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-18/ex_sfc5-ani.html

[Frank2]

As Wally (Leave it to Beaver) would say:

Ah...

P.S. We'll see - hopefully not, because we all know what the early runs for Danielle and Earl were like - had they happened I'd be sitting in the middle of Biscayne Bay right now (lol)...

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS brings everything to 97 knots in 120 hours (lol)...

Well, it only brings 99L up to 21 knots :-P

[alienstorm]

Looks like it's back to TD Gaston...

[ColinDelia]

Thats is insane to see the usual conservative LGEM at 110kts..Even ships coming in with 97kts with an initialization of 25kts is impressive....

LGEM uses instantaneous values for some of its environmental variables whereas SHIPS uses values averaged over some amount of time.
At 96 hours they are both at 83 knots so presumably LGEM is acting much faster to the improved environment on days 4 and 5.

[terrapintransit]

Looks like it's back to TD Gaston...

NHC currently only giving it a 50% chance of come back..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[ROCK]

Gaston sure is fighting that dry air tooth and nail....he will be back, I have no doubt about it...as far as track... 144hr we come to a crossroads with the models IMO....

[South Texas Storms]

rock which camp are you siding with as of now? the recurves or caribbean runners?

[ConvergenceZone]

If this is going to recurve out to sea, then we need to development quickly,
otherwise this is carib bound and potentially east toast or gulf bound.

[tropicwatch]

Some of the systems this season like Gaston, reminds me of a yo-yo. Its up, its down and so on!

[ROCK]

rock which camp are you siding with as of now? the recurves or caribbean runners?

carib....after that not sure right now..need some more model runs before I jump on one...the ECM was interesting but its bouncing around to much for me..need constistancy....I see SHIPS cranks this baby up to 97knts...thats impressive..plenty of fuel out there all things equal..

My hunch right now is a Pensacola landfall with Ivan's house in the NE quad/ eye wall of a cat4...but that is just a gut feeling....

[Vortex]

Now that the sun has set out in the central atlantic lets see what dmax brings..I think the trend will continue with deeper more organized convection as the night progresses...I also think well be back with Gaston(officially) on Saturday....

[blazess556]

18z nam has it getting ready to enter the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortex]

also notice the ridge due North of Gaston at H+84




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[Blown Away]

TAFB sees "Possible Cyclone" with ex-Gaston and BOC??

[HURAKAN]

Maybe 95E crosses into the BOC. I don't see any other reason to have development in the area in the next 72 hours.

[ROCK]

also notice the ridge due North of Gaston at H+84




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

Vortex I can see why he would go even SW or WSW for a time....nice ridge....

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Maybe 95E crosses into the BOC. I don't see any other reason to have development in the area in the next 72 hours.

The NAM and GFS and to some degree the EURO all forecast some of the energy from 95E to move into the BOC by Sunday. Could see development there.