ATL: GASTON - Models

[Ivanhater]

Surprised no one posted the Euro..Keeps it weak but finally backed off the early recurve with a strong high above...that is Gaston in the Western Caribbean

[MWatkins]

Considerable spread in the GFS ensembles for the long range too. No real cluster of solutions, looks like the operational GFS is in the middle of the guidance, but wow big spread.

MW

[cycloneye]

Considerable spread in the GFS ensembles for the long range too. No real cluster of solutions, looks like the operational GFS is in the middle of the guidance, but wow big spread.

MW

Mike,in terms of intensity, SHIP has it at 97kts. Do you think that is too high?

[South Texas Storms]

i think all the models should be taken with a grain of salt right now. theres no way this is a guaranteed recurve. plus anything in the models beyond 120 hours is just entertainment to me...

[ROCK]

Surprised no one posted the Euro..Keeps it weak but finally backed off the early recurve with a strong high above...that is Gaston in the Western Caribbean

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

are you sure....western carib? that is further west than I would have thought...so the GFS is out in the middle of ALT and the EURO is in the western Carib...nice...

[MWatkins]

18Z GFS is already less progressive with the upper system over the Great Lakes in 90 hours vs. the 12Z run. Should be a slight to moderate shift left in the extended guidance.

MW

[Vortex]

lets see mike...looking like another hit on PR at H+126

[blazess556]

gfs is much faster than 12z

[Vortex]

it sure it and seems very reasonable with the strengthening ridge this evening and current movement of gaston.

[ColinDelia]

18z GFS.

144 hours


156 hours


168 hours

[cycloneye]

How many runs in a row GFS has been with a landfall in PR? I lost count.

[Vortex]

looking more and more like PR and DR will have to deal with this storm...

[ColinDelia]

7th run in a row that it has passed over or very near PR, cycloneye. The run before that it passed too far south to meet that criteria.

[Vortex]

IR certainly looks improved with developing deep convection...

[blazess556]

looks like the gfs initialized Gaston much farther north than 12z. check it out

[Vortex]

18Z GFS has the turn North just a bit further west than the 12z....This will be critical where it takes place...The further S it comes into the carribean CMC/ECM the greather the threat further west....As the subtropical ridge builds the next few days a wsw movement seems plausible and will be very important in the longer term....

[ColinDelia]

It sure has, Vortex. (IR looks improved)

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL continues to track towards the NE Caribbean Now as a Major Cane
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

931
WHXX04 KWBC 032349
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.9 42.1 300./ 7.0
6 15.1 42.5 294./ 4.5
12 15.3 43.4 286./ 9.0
18 15.4 44.2 279./ 7.7
24 15.7 45.1 285./ 9.6
30 15.9 46.0 280./ 8.8
36 16.1 47.0 281./ 9.9
42 16.4 48.4 284./13.3
48 16.5 49.6 277./11.8
54 16.4 50.9 265./12.6
60 16.2 52.1 259./11.3
66 16.2 53.4 270./12.5
72 16.1 54.6 268./11.8
78 16.0 56.2 266./15.0
84 15.8 57.2 254./10.5
90 15.7 58.5 269./12.2
96 15.7 59.6 269./10.7
102 15.9 60.7 280./10.3
108 15.8 61.8 266./10.9
114 16.0 62.6 285./ 7.9
120 16.1 63.3 278./ 7.2
126 16.3 63.8 291./ 5.4

[OURAGAN]

Looking at the forecast points of GFDL, it seems to me that the ridge to the north of it will be very very strong

[KWT]

Hmmmm quite a tough call this one looking at the models, the ridging is pretty weak still aloft on the models, esp in terms of heights which is KEY....however equally the 12z ECM for example keeps the upper troughing weak as well and so a system down near 15-17N could just keep on a broad WNW track once at 60W the whole way till land...its a tough one.

This is quite clearly a E.CAribbean threat, could easily become a deeper threat to the Caribbean as well though as we are now seeing on the GFS runs.