ATL: GASTON - Models

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 96 hours. Approaching Islands

[ColinDelia]

120 hours. Reaching Islands


162 hours. Reaching PR

[ColinDelia]

168. Over Luis' house


228 hours. Heading North

[ColinDelia]

288 hours


312 hours


348 hours

[perk]

From south Texas to recurve the GFS is behaving like the Euro.

[Blown Away]

BAM's still running for ex-Gaston?

[ColinDelia]

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, yesterday this didn't look like a recurver now all of the sudden pased upon a couple of the model runs it does...

[hurricaneCW]

I think it's too far out to say with any confidence that it will recurve. What does appear increasingly likely is that this storm could directly impact the Leewards, Puerto, and the Dominican Republic/Haiti.

[chrisjslucia]

But the models still leave me head scratching. BAMS has a major recurve NW before 50W and UKMET is showing a strong dip to the south-west at 50W before re-curving North West via Barbados. BAMD shows a WSW track taking it over the North of St Lucia. Given the changes over the past 24 hours, I think you guys will have your work cut out pinning Gaston down!

[Bailey1777]

yesterday it was in the central gom today the atlantic 2000miles away, i know these long range models have large margins but in 12 hours that is crazy.

[AussieMark]

that track looks like a more westerly track of Hurricane Luis of 1995

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS. This uses the BAMM track.

SHIPS goes to 93 knots
LGEM goes to 105 knots

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 60 67 74 78 85 93
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 60 67 74 78 85 93
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 58 68 80 93 105

SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 10 10 11 13 11 15 9 10 11 4

[KWT]

Models have really been poor with this one, they were way too slow to start with and only GFS had a realistic motion of this one.

The most likely solution is something like what the GFS is suggesting but as we saw with Earl sometimes things aren't well timed by the models then pretty sizeable shifts are possible in the models at this stage.

The 00z ECM for exmaple which keeps gaston weak the whole way ends up in the SW.Caribbean by 240hrs!

[ConvergenceZone]

That's why I'm so confused about this storm. For example you have the model plots that ColinDelia just posted that don't point to any collective evidence of a recurve at all. Then you have other models that aren't on that map that show recurve...

[MWatkins]

The reason is the models are plotted out to 120 hours (5 days) and the recurves in the models are happening the period beyond that (150 hours +).

Beyond 120 hours, they are subject to huge errors!

Looking at 120 is pushing it, looking past 120 is like trying to predict the Super Bowl winner after the 1st quarter of the first game in Week 1 of the season.

MW

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL tracks it towards the Lesser Antilles but as a Tropical Storm.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The reason is the models are plotted out to 120 hours (5 days) and the recurves in the models are happening the period beyond that (150 hours +).

Beyond 120 hours, they are subject to huge errors!

Looking at 120 is pushing it, looking past 120 is like trying to predict the Super Bowl winner after the 1st quarter of the first game in Week 1 of the season.

MW

Amen to that. People put way to much into long range model forecasts. Anything beyond 5 days should only be available to those mature enough to handle it.

[gatorcane]

The reason is the models are plotted out to 120 hours (5 days) and the recurves in the models are happening the period beyond that (150 hours +).

Beyond 120 hours, they are subject to huge errors!

Looking at 120 is pushing it, looking past 120 is like trying to predict the Super Bowl winner after the 1st quarter of the first game in Week 1 of the season.

MW

I agree 100%. Actually the recurve is happening at 200+ hours but there have been runs of the GFS showing it moving into the GOM and Southern FL as well. So the GFS has not been consistent.

In fact I will also add that my hunch is this gets more west than any of the Cape Verde systems so far..........still thinks it makes a run at the United States.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP almost goes to Cat 3 (97 kts)

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 031850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC FRI SEP 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100903 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100903  1800   100904  0600   100904  1800   100905  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N  41.9W   15.4N  43.5W   15.9N  45.5W   16.1N  47.8W
BAMD    14.9N  41.9W   15.7N  43.5W   16.3N  45.4W   16.5N  47.7W
BAMM    14.9N  41.9W   15.4N  43.2W   15.8N  44.8W   15.7N  46.7W
LBAR    14.9N  41.9W   15.7N  43.3W   16.7N  45.1W   17.7N  47.3W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100905  1800   100906  1800   100907  1800   100908  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  50.4W   15.7N  55.9W   15.1N  60.6W   15.6N  63.1W
BAMD    16.3N  50.3W   15.1N  56.4W   14.0N  62.5W   13.2N  66.5W
BAMM    15.4N  48.7W   14.1N  53.5W   13.9N  57.8W   15.7N  60.7W
LBAR    18.6N  49.9W   19.6N  55.3W   19.5N  60.6W   18.9N  65.0W
SHIP        52KTS          69KTS          83KTS          97KTS
DSHP        52KTS          69KTS          83KTS          97KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.9N LONCUR =  41.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  14.1N LONM12 =  40.6W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  13.5N LONM24 =  39.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  210NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM