"39L is highly convectively active, with a number of overshooting tops . Many of the overshooting tops are associated with an ITCZ extension of the system to the south, but there are a number connected to a smaller region closer to the pouch center. Shear is the main obstruction to development with a dramatic east-northeast jet that results in moderate-high shear over the pouch center, preventing any vertical stacking. The vorticity signature is stretched horizontally and it will require time to aggregate, suggesting several days before any development, if any.
The monsoonal flow is dominant with surface westerlies is preventing any system from leaving the region creating a pool of vorticity and TPW, possibly to the benefit of 40L which is further north but nearing the coast. 40L is a distinct area of convection to the northeast of 39L."
Written yesterday.
SOURCE:
https://groups.ssec.wisc.edu/groups/tro ... log-9-2-10
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