ATL: GASTON - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

156

[ROCK]

6 days to make it across...what is it moving 2mph?

[Wx_Warrior]

For a "strong high," that's poor intialization.

[Wx_Warrior]

174H

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif


there is your weakness but doesnt look like enough.....the next SV moving thru the CONUS looks flat...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif


its like watching water boil....

[Wx_Warrior]

216H

[boca]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif


its like watching water boil....

I betcha the GFS will have Gaston moving over the DR and disrupting her circulation over the next couple of frames.

[ROCK]

it takes 9 days to get this far.....all of us are going to age probably 10 years just by watching this...

[BigB0882]

Is there a reason it is going to just crawl like that? Or is there something off with these runs?

[Ivanhater]

Off NE at 312 but looping back into the NJ at 336

[ROCK]

this is very similar to the 18z IMO....so far...

edit to add moving off the EC is not what the 18z showed.....

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL....i think it moves it too slow. But who knows. Right now Gas is gassed.

[boca]

LOL....i think it moves it too slow. But who knows. Right now Gas is gassed.

[ROCK]

LOL....i think it moves it too slow. But who knows. Right now Gas is gassed.

agree...no way it moves that slow...

[Ivanhater]

Now Yall knew we were still going to see many flip flops.

This one is looking like a Caribbean Cruiser for a while, much higher chance to hit the SE U.S or Gulf. Highest chance so far this year imo.

Like I said last night, we were likely to see Gulf runs (CHECK), and I expect to see Central America/Yucatan runs as well

[boca]

Now Yall knew we were still going to see many flip flops.

This one is looking like a Caribbean Cruiser for a while, much higher chance to hit the SE U.S or Gulf. Highest chance so far this year imo.

The GFS still has Gaston recurving in the SE Bahamas at point of recurvature.On a side note the ITCZ looks like its going to swallow up whats left of Gaston.

[South Texas Storms]

Now Yall knew we were still going to see many flip flops.

This one is looking like a Caribbean Cruiser for a while, much higher chance to hit the SE U.S or Gulf. Highest chance so far this year imo.

Like I said last night, we were likely to see Gulf runs (CHECK), and I expect to see Central America/Yucatan runs as well

yeah i think you nailed it ivan. its only a matter of time before we can check the next one off your list...

[Ivanhater]

Now Yall knew we were still going to see many flip flops.

This one is looking like a Caribbean Cruiser for a while, much higher chance to hit the SE U.S or Gulf. Highest chance so far this year imo.

The GFS still has Gaston recurving in the SE Bahamas at point of recurvature.On a side note the ITCZ looks like its going to swallow up whats left of Gaston.

No, it hits the East coast this run, it does not recurve.

[BigB0882]

Does this only make it up the EC because it spends so long traveling at a snail's pace that the high finally recedes? If that is the case then I see this as an unlikely scenario because I doubt it makes its way across the Atlantic that slow. I am still leaning towards a FL and Gulf threat.