ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Cookie]

I think there's a very good chance of regeneration in 3-4 days. Same as with any strong tropical disturbance with a weak circulation.

yup, its never over till its over, the tropics show us time and time again.

[SoupBone]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

My thoughts exactly. I'm amazed at how fast it dissolved.
With the shear and fronts coming down etc,
I'm thinking that the CV season might be slowly coming to a close. We
might be getting a break for awhile...Although come late september we
might start seeing some development in the carib and gulf.

I think the fact that Gaston dissolved into nothing so quickly tells us
all we need to know about the conditions out there right now in the Eastern
Atlantic.

I think you were looking for the "Season is Over" thread over in Talkin Tropics....LOL

[jaxfladude]

I think there's a very good chance of regeneration in 3-4 days. Same as with any strong tropical disturbance with a weak circulation.

Coming from you, that is , all due

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?

My thoughts exactly. I'm amazed at how fast it dissolved.
With the shear and fronts coming down etc,
I'm thinking that the CV season might be slowly coming to a close. We
might be getting a break for awhile...Although come late september we
might start seeing some development in the carib and gulf.

I think the fact that Gaston dissolved into nothing so quickly tells us
all we need to know about the conditions out there right now in the Eastern
Atlantic.

I think you were looking for the "Season is Over" thread over in Talkin Tropics....LOL

Some on here are like children. Gaston disapted so now the season's over.....Whahhhhhh

[jaxfladude]

Hey now, after what Earl may do, season cancel would be nice.
See you, Gaston in 2016!

[fasterdisaster]

:uarrow:

Hey now, after what Earl may do, season cancel would be nice.
See you, Gaston in 2016!

It's still a little early to say bye to him. Chances are in his favor.

[Blown Away]

Usually the NHC puts "Dissipated" to finish off a forecast if they don't think it will regenerate. Not so w/ Gaston.

[Vortex]

convection may be starting to pop over the estimated center per latest IR....

[Vortex]

Folks, Gaston will be back..

[KWT]

Yeah anyone who thinks this is done is seriously in trouble, a weaker system will probably just end up scooting past the weakness to the north near 60W and track right towards the Gulf in the end...

Lets say if we had an invest in this position with what will eventually be good conditions again down the line say near 50-55W.

If anything its a much bigger threat now the chances of it being a strong system near 60W are reduced...

[blazess556]

its starting to get some moisture from the itcz

[cycloneye]

If anything its a much bigger threat now the chances of it being a strong system near 60W are reduced...

You mean no hurricane before 60W?

[Vortex]

Kwt well said..I couldnt agree with you more. I really hope those in the islands are watching this closely...It's going to happen IMO we just don't know at what strength

[KWT]

Yeah pretty much, maybe even further west then that Cycloneye...a weaker system will probably not gain as much latitude as it gets towards the E.Caribbean and stick on a mainly W/WNW motion, esp a system that hasn't 'redeveloped'...

My biggest fear this season was to get a weak system past 60W and close to 15N...because that far south it'll take several bites of the cherry to recurve and it'd have to go through the islands even if there was that oppertunity....a TS is going to have a far bigger risk of a hit down the line at 15/60 then a hurricane at 20/60.

[cycloneye]

A small lone thunderstorm.

[Dean4Storms]

They've all been struggling till they hit 50w.

[Vortex]

more importantly that right over the vorticity or center I was looking at on Hi-re vis at sunset...Lets see if that continues to grow this evening...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Based on my amateur knowledge Gaston may regenerate in a few days as conditions become
more conducive. The weakening means it will go further west- hence it needs to be watched
carefully. Andrew and Katrina's depressions originally weakened before getting far
enough west to become monsters. I am NOT saying this will be Andrew or Katrina,
but I mention those storms to bring up a point. Do Not let your gaurd down this
time of year!

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[KWT]

Models like the GFDL/HWRV have suggested this one is going to struggle for a while and the problem has been and still is there was a heck of alot of dry air close to the center of circulation, which is never a good thing for a system...

However I'd be very surprised if it doesn't find better conditions, esp as it does get further west.

[TwisterFanatic]

Most models didn't strengthen Gaston much until the Caribbean.... People who thought this is was going to blow up over night are sadly mistaken.