ATL: GASTON - Models

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fci
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#441 Postby fci » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:05 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
fci wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:i still dont think this is going to be a recurver. i feel like this one has gom bound written all over it.
i really want to see what the euro shows tonight.


Why do you feel that has gom written all over it?
Anything to do with where you live?

We're talking like 10 days out at least!


no its just by the trends so far this season. earl was forecast to recurve but its going to brush the east coast. the gfs tends to overdo the troughs and i think one of these cape verde storms will sneak through the caribbean and into the gulf.


I like to look at the trends in my favor when possible.
Trends thus far have been for CV storms to recurve.
Why bet against it?
Until I see a storm get into the Central Carib., I am going to expect the trend to continue.
Some seasons just go a certain way persistently.
Like a couple of years or so ago where it seemed like low-riders that just shot west dominated the season
I know it only takes one, to dramatically change a season; however, until I see something buck this pattern we are in, put me down for this not being a GOM'er
However, if you really want it!! :lol:
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#442 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:13 pm

I'd give the euro another look if it hadn't had gaston sit at 40W for a week..Not going to happen so the end result is skewed...
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#443 Postby TwisterFanatic » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:48 pm

Im not so sure about the EURO and the CMC right now... They wanted to blow up Fiona, and of course that most likely isn't going to happen.
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#444 Postby Frank2 » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:53 pm

Yes, year after year both the EURO and CMC seem to overdo almost every disturbance, so I stick with the GFS - it seems to consistently do well, and if it makes an error it usually isn't by a very wide margin though from time to time there will be a bogus low due to bad data...

Frank
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#445 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Sep 02, 2010 3:02 pm

Frank2 wrote:Yes, year after year both the EURO and CMC seem to overdo almost every disturbance, so I stick with the GFS - it seems to consistently do well, and if it makes an error it usually isn't by a very wide margin though from time to time there will be a bogus low due to bad data...

Frank


I guess you favor a stronger solution then, because the gfs is deeper through at least hour 144.
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#446 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:13 pm

18Z GFS rolls in 15 min...
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#447 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:51 pm

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#448 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:13 pm

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#449 Postby Duke95 » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:20 pm

Redevelops it at the same pressure reading it currently exhibits?

Why not say it redevelops it at 0h?
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#450 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:21 pm

The hits keep coming...looks like tuesday it should be passing throught the island chain...At what strenghth is the bigger question tonight.





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
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#451 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:23 pm

H+132 Taking a pounding :eek:
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Re:

#452 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:26 pm

Duke95 wrote:Redevelops it at the same pressure reading it currently exhibits?

Why not say it redevelops it at 0h?

It's clearly a closed system at 72hrs unlike now or at initialization.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#453 Postby Fego » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:28 pm

Image

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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#454 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:29 pm

Is that something else hitting south Texas in that run?
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#455 Postby Duke95 » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:29 pm

Please show an image of the initialization that doesn't exhibit a closed system. Maybe I am looking at the wrong chart.
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#456 Postby Fego » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:34 pm

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At 174 hours...
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#457 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:36 pm

H+ 174 passing south of PR
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#458 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:38 pm

Landfall in DR at H+192
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#459 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:40 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Is that something else hitting south Texas in that run?


yeah its either a tropical wave or a closed low. theres a topic on it in the talkin tropics thread (BOC). we will hopefully get some good soaking rains out of this! :D
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Re: ATL: GASTON - Models

#460 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:41 pm

From those who get it early

hits far S FL at 300 and then goes W into the GOM.
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