ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090218, , BEST, 0, 135N, 393W, 25, 1009, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains as TD.

[cycloneye]

This is really crawling.

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 39.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

[hurricaneCW]

Any possibility that the weakening or slow organization can be due to upwelling due to its very slow speed or maybe that it's passing over the upwelled waters of Earl and Danielle. I'm sure the stable/dry air is the main culprit but there could be additional factors to a slow reorganization process.

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak:

02/1745 UTC 13.4N 39.3W T1.5/2.5 GASTON -- Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Any possibility that the weakening or slow organization can be due to upwelling due to its very slow speed or maybe that it's passing over the upwelled waters of Earl and Danielle. I'm sure the stable/dry air is the main culprit but there could be additional factors to a slow reorganization process.

30 knots winds aren't likely to produce upwelling and it's not moving slow enough to produce upwelling.

[wxman57]

I can clearly see at least 2 low-level centers rotating around a common point. Same thing we saw with Danielle and Earl during the formative stages. The centers need to consolidate for strengthening to occur.

[HURAKAN]

really struggling today

[StormClouds63]

Like all good Cajuns, Gaston will return ... might have to wait 2-3 days. It will be interesting if the Carolina landfall scenario is a shot in the dark, or if the model runs are going to be consistent with a Caribbean and then Atlantic coast threat. Year of the trough in the Atlantic, at least so far. Displacement/weakness of the ridge saved a lot of lives in the Islands, which otherwise would have had to deal with Danielle and Earl.

[ColinDelia]

if I took all the precipitation falling in the past hour from gaston I am not even sure I'd have enough water to make coffee.

[Brent]

if I took all the precipitation falling in the past hour from gaston I am not even sure I'd have enough water to make coffee.
http://linkification.com/wx/2010/gaston/shower.jpg

Wow, just hideous.

[ColinDelia]

Check out the TUTT on water vapor digging Southwest toward the NE Caribbean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Frank2]

In this loop Gaston's LLC (or one of several LLC's) is seen moving north!

A little early for a breakdown in the easterlies, but apparently the high to the north is very weak ATTM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

that plus the TUTT = hopefully a hurricane-less Labor Day weekend (USA)...

Frank

[StormClouds63]

Check out the TUTT on water vapor digging Southwest toward the NE Caribbean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

That might spell the end for Gaston and perhaps the system behind it as well. Atlantic ridge has remained relatively weak ... lots of re-curves and many lives saved in the populated islands of the Caribbean. FWIW, MJO appears to be moving into a favorable phase soon.

[dwsqos2]

That upper low is pretty much behaving as progged.

[ColinDelia]

dare I say it? Poof

[cycloneye]

dare I say it? Poof

The vorticity is gone?

[otowntiger]

I don't see how they will be able to keep this thing classified as a depression, so yeah, I think you can say poof, at least for now anyway.

[Evil Jeremy]

Dead... for now:

"ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
GASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS. "

[cycloneye]

The last advisory was written (See advisory thread)

[Stormcenter]

Wow to go from a "potential" 85 knot hurricane (this morning's advisory) to
a remnant low in less then 12 hours is pretty darn amazing. May I ask how the
NHC didn't see this coming?