ATL: GASTON - Models

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Downgraded to TD at initial time.

Code: Select all

519
WHXX01 KWBC 021231
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1231 UTC THU SEP 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON (AL092010) 20100902 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100902  1200   100903  0000   100903  1200   100904  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N  38.6W   14.3N  39.7W   15.0N  41.1W   15.8N  42.9W
BAMD    13.9N  38.6W   14.5N  39.2W   15.3N  40.3W   16.2N  41.9W
BAMM    13.9N  38.6W   14.2N  39.2W   14.8N  40.3W   15.6N  41.7W
LBAR    13.9N  38.6W   14.7N  39.8W   15.9N  41.3W   17.3N  42.9W
SHIP        30KTS          31KTS          36KTS          43KTS
DSHP        30KTS          31KTS          36KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100904  1200   100905  1200   100906  1200   100907  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.7N  45.0W   18.0N  49.9W   18.8N  55.8W   19.2N  61.9W
BAMD    17.1N  43.8W   17.9N  48.2W   17.5N  54.0W   17.1N  60.5W
BAMM    16.3N  43.4W   17.1N  47.5W   16.8N  52.7W   16.3N  58.6W
LBAR    19.0N  44.9W   22.3N  49.2W   24.6N  52.6W   25.3N  54.9W
SHIP        51KTS          67KTS          77KTS          88KTS
DSHP        51KTS          67KTS          77KTS          88KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.9N LONCUR =  38.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  37.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 =  35.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[ConvergenceZone]

Luis, so you are saying that this has now been downgraded to a TD?
Hmmm, I'm wondering if Gaston is going to be ble to survive. I remember WXMAN mentioning later yesterday "if Gaston survives" so he must have seen this coming.

[ColinDelia]

Here is the link to the site I was talking about earlier with model performance statistics
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

2009 performance
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/ ... .2009.html

Improvement over time
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/ ... zhist.html

Now, back to your regularly scheduled program

[wxman57]

Luis, so you are saying that this has now been downgraded to a TD?
Hmmm, I'm wondering if Gaston is going to be able to survive. I remember WXMAN mentioning later yesterday "if Gaston survives" so he must have seen this coming.

I didn't think conditions in Gaston's immediate path looked hospitable. However, I think it'll survive. Interestingly, I saved a Saharan Air Layer map with satellite overlay from last Thursday. Earl was in nearly the exact same spot as Gaston and Earl looked very much like Gaston does now.

[SoupBone]

Luis, so you are saying that this has now been downgraded to a TD?
Hmmm, I'm wondering if Gaston is going to be able to survive. I remember WXMAN mentioning later yesterday "if Gaston survives" so he must have seen this coming.

I didn't think conditions in Gaston's immediate path looked hospitable. However, I think it'll survive. Interestingly, I saved a Saharan Air Layer map with satellite overlay from last Thursday. Earl was in nearly the exact same spot as Gaston and Earl looked very much like Gaston does now.

That is interesting for sure. The question becomes what are the predicted future conditions. Will that cold front still be around by the time Gaston gets near the US?

[ColinDelia]

I didn't think conditions in Gaston's immediate path looked hospitable. However, I think it'll survive. Interestingly, I saved a Saharan Air Layer map with satellite overlay from last Thursday. Earl was in nearly the exact same spot as Gaston and Earl looked very much like Gaston does now.

I also saved one from about where Earl lost much of its convection.



6 hours later it developed new TS cells. About 36 hours later it started to strengthen at a good clip.

[Fego]

GFS rolling.. at 48 hrs.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

144 hours. Enters the Eastern Caribbean.

[Fego]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

At 150 hours heading toward the big islands.

[cycloneye]

168 hours. Moves NW towards Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

192 hours. Makes landfall in PR.

[cycloneye]

After making landfall in PR, it moves close to the Bahamas and makes a run towards the Carolinas.

[cycloneye]

Final landfall in Carolinas

[BigB0882]

Well I guess the Carolina's is a good place to be this far out, surely it won't be exactly right! I still think this will trend west over time like almost all storms have to some degree. I'm guessing a FL landfall for now, if it trends west enough then it could end up in the GOM but I wont go that far yet.

[Fego]

GFS12UTC run keeps Gaston from Thursday to Saturday over Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

GFS12UTC run keeps Gaston from Thursday to Saturday over Puerto Rico.

Yep,moving slowly and you know what that means for the effects here.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC recurves fairly eastward before it reaches the Leewards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it too trends west, that slow movement could have it over Hispanola for a long time instead. Devastating for that island for sure post earthquake. However, high terrain could weaken it considerably too, especially if there for a long while.

Wherever it goes, I think Gaston will be a retired name after this year.

[tolakram]

For archiving purposes (shame on you all for posting direct and temporary links) :|

GFS 144 hours



GFS 384 hours

[ROCK]

looks like fall out there....big sweeping cold fronts....might not make the connection at 144hr...obvious that front scoops it up...but if its any weaker than progged in that run it might miss it...just hard for me to fathom such a deep trof in the middle of summer......we are still in summer? right?