ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[aerology]

Earl's intensity peaks around the time the lunar declination peaks at maximum North culmination, the same as Katrina, and Rita did. Sometimes correlations that repeat might bear looking into a little more.

[KWT]

Convection is a little weaker as you'd expect as it runs into slightly lower oceanic heat content before the Gulf Stream, but the overall look of the system is still that of a powerful hurricane for sure and the fact its a 145mph hurricane means people should be taking it VERY seriously if your in the hurricane warning area.

We are now offically in wobble watch mode!

[jlauderdal]

Convection is a little weaker as you'd expect as it runs into slightly lower oceanic heat content before the Gulf Stream, but the overall look of the system is still that of a powerful hurricane for sure and the fact its a 145mph hurricane means people should be taking it VERY seriously if your in the hurricane warning area.

We are now offically in wobble watch mode!

oh no, wobble watch day, that should be good for a at least a few hundred posts today, next up gaston, hope the servers can handle the load the next couple of weeks, be interesting to see what happens after earl clears NC and heads up the coast, think their could be a bigger story there if it stays west, big time energy in the mix with earl coming up and a front pushing in from the west all coming together in a couple of days and population centers

[apocalypt-flyer]

Or rather the next couple of weeks. Several models are picks up on the waves behind Gaston as well.

Anyways, the whole track is still way too close for comfort and I hope everyone's aware of what could possibly hit them (even if it's not a direct one). The latest little shifts to the left don't look very promising for the folks further up the coast either.

[xironman]

Earl's looking kind of funky at the moment.

[KWT]

Hmmm dry moat there on the western side again, so Earl probably is about to weaken again...

That is good news, a weaker western side clearly means less threat of the powerful winds mixing down even if the system does end up to the west of the forecasted track.

Still too close to call, every wobble counts...also looks like its moving very near due north.

[AussieMark]

the issue for these areas was always going to be the surge

Just hope it tracks further east than forcasted or Nova Scotia could get wholloped?

[Pebbles]

Anyone have a link to a current microwave image? (lost some links)

[Meso]

Looking at the WV loops, there is no clear large entry of dry air into that area, and Earl has been fighting off the dry air well recently. It is definitely weaker than 3 hours ago, but it could also possibly be temporary. I think it probably peaked earlier but could steal regain a decent satellite appearance. Depending on what happens with this current weakening around the eyewall. It will be an interesting few hours to see what he will do.

[Nimbus]

As long as Earl doesn't decide to blast up through Connecticut we should be ok. Putting the coastal new england cities on the stronger eastern side of the storm like they were with the 1938 long island express would be a nightmare.

I think a long island express would require there be a strong front with negative tilt to drive the hurricane north. looks like a traditional front approaching from the west in the current steering pattern.

[rog]

The local Met here in Portland, Me. says a cold front will move down into Northern Maine this afternoon. The front will stall and then be pushed back to the North by Earl. If Earl is strong enough to push this front back to the north, would this be an indication the trough that is driving the front is not as strong as progged, and Earl could ride up closer to the coast?

Thanks
Rog

[KWT]

Radar showing the outer banding of EArl is already moving closer to North Carolina right now, maybe getting the first rains within the next couple of hours as showers are getting sparked off ahead of the system.

[O Town]

ANIMATED MICRO LINK

[KWT]

That shows the recent turn more to the north very nicely Otown thanks for that graphic!

[Meso]

Still 128kt SFMR from recon, so still got some bite in him.

Pressures look like they may be in the 932-935 area.

EDIT: Still looking very messy on latest satellite though

[KWT]

Yeah 128kts is a very impressive figure from the SMFR, though I suspect it will be now weakening pretty much the whole way slowly but surely as conditions slowly worsen as it moves away from the tropics and towards the subtropics as the trough lifts the system out.

[anarchiver19]

As I get ready to head out to work this morning it out local weather reports have been basically not to expect too much of anything other than some gusty wind tomorrow and possibly some brief periods of rain close to the coast. They have kept assuring viewers in this area that Earl is staying off shore and we should have sunshine by early Friday afternoon. No one has been mentioning making any special preparations here. I'm thinking that we can breathe a collective sigh of relief here in Hampton Roads.

My question is, to anyone that may know, looking at the track of Bonnie in 1998 compared to Earl...they look similar (which probably means nothing since I am by no means well versed in any of this)..what are the main differences that account for the effects it will have in SE coastal VA? I ask only becase Bonnie stayed off the Va Coast too, but here in Va Beach/Norfolk it did millions of dollars in damages and it was a pretty nasty storm.

[HurrMark]

Looks like it is going to pass just east of the 30N/75W benchmark...

[CronkPSU]

Looks like it is going to pass just east of the 30N/75W benchmark...

can you remind us if that is a good or bad thing for OBX

[xironman]

That shows the recent turn more to the north very nicely Otown thanks for that graphic!

You can also see that last night it gave us a head fake of heading north before one more jog to the west early this morning, like a snake. So is this one more head fake or the real deal?