ATL: GASTON - Models

[LowndesCoFire]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

HWRF has G revving up and then...GREEN LIGHT!

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Whats with the little loop da loop at the beginning of the run? weird..

I can't remember when the HWRF did not go NW at the start of every storm...pretty much due west on the HWRF

[KWT]

Really slow to start with but eventually it disconnects itself and hads westwards...I suspect the models are a little on the slow side to start with which may well have a role to play in this ones track.

Either way HWRF goes near due west once it gets going and heading right for the Caribbean...

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL not Caribbean bound.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

I don't think the GFDL handles this one at all well looking at that 18z run there Cycloneye...barely does anything with it over the next 84-96hrs and only strengthens it once its lifted up to the WNW...

Looks like it has very slow motion though over the next few days so whatever track it takes its probably going to be with us for the next 10-14 days!

[ROCK]

this GFDL run is junk....to slow and to weak IMO...

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 020039
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0039 UTC THU SEP 2 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON (AL092010) 20100902 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100902  0000   100902  1200   100903  0000   100903  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  37.1W   13.4N  38.5W   13.9N  39.7W   14.6N  41.3W
BAMD    13.0N  37.1W   13.3N  38.4W   13.8N  39.3W   14.4N  40.5W
BAMM    13.0N  37.1W   13.4N  38.4W   13.9N  39.3W   14.6N  40.6W
LBAR    13.0N  37.1W   13.5N  38.8W   14.3N  40.5W   15.2N  42.3W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          49KTS          56KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          49KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100904  0000   100905  0000   100906  0000   100907  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.4N  43.1W   17.2N  47.3W   18.6N  52.3W   19.6N  58.1W
BAMD    15.2N  42.2W   16.6N  46.8W   17.6N  52.5W   17.3N  59.2W
BAMM    15.5N  42.2W   17.3N  46.2W   18.6N  51.2W   18.6N  57.4W
LBAR    16.5N  44.1W   19.7N  48.0W   23.4N  51.6W   26.0N  53.5W
SHIP        63KTS          79KTS          86KTS          94KTS
DSHP        63KTS          79KTS          86KTS          94KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR =  37.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  35.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 =  32.1W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  60NM


Slowing down.

[Vortex]

ships now up to 94kts

[Ivanhater]

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks Caribbean bound doesn't it..maybe northern Caribbean?

[Weatherfreak000]

Hello, Hello Caribbean!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Hello!

[Sanibel]

Don't trust GFDL until the system is a hurricane. It is best with storms that have an eye.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS

54 HOURS

[Ivanhater]

72 HOURS

[Stormcenter]

I know it's still a long way out but I would bet right now that it doesn't make it into the Carribean but
treks above the islands. IMO

[Ivanhater]

90 HOURS

[Ivanhater]

108 HOURS

[Ivanhater]

120 HOURS

[ROCK]

did anyone checked the EURO ensembles this afternoon?

never mind I checked...nada