ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[BatzVI]

For some reason, this one has me very nervous....been through enough of them to notice the difference in "gut feelings"

[jeff]

Wxman....what are your true thoughts about Gaston in relation to the islands? Just curious....

I am not Wxman...but the Islands should watch Gaston closely. Could be a decent impact...possibly hard hit deeper (southward) into the islands compared to Earl and Fiona.

[BatzVI]

Trust me...we're watching....

[Ivanhater]

Michael:

How strong is the ridge? Is it strong enough to push this system west or west-northwest? Are you thinking this might even reach the western Caribbean and then turn north or north-northeast perhaps across Cuba or through the Yucutan ... similar to (no pun intended) Ivan in 2004? Could it reach that far west before feeling a trough?

I mentioned that the western GOM would be unlikely because the fronts (very weak "dry" fronts) are starting to push through ... so I could perhaps see maybe the central or eastern GOM coast ... perhaps as far west as Mobile or Pensacola.

I don't think this stays a Caribbean "low-rider" circa 2007. It will eventually feel the tug northward.

Anyway, I'll be watching and following your posts. Don't always agree, but that's what makes it interesting.

I'm liking 1998 as an analog year. This one might be close to George in the short to mid term. After that I'm really not sure..

[Stephanie]

For some reason, this one has me very nervous....been through enough of them to notice the difference in "gut feelings"

I believe in those "gut feelings". Just keep an eye on him and we'll all hope for the best.

[BatzVI]

Thanks for understanding....

[wxman57]

Wxman....what are your true thoughts about Gaston in relation to the islands? Just curious....

Wxman57, what is your first analysis of Gastons future intensity but more important,the track?

I asked that question earlier,but as the pages of the thread changed,maybe he didn't see it,but is the one question that all of us who live in the NE Caribbean has right now.

It seems to have fair outflow now, but if you look at a WV loop you'll see a deepening trof east of Earl that's heading for Gaston. If it dips down too far, it could cause some strong shear tomorrow. I was a bit surprised that the models all went from nothing developing to major hurricane. But I guess it could survive and become a hurricane.

The only thing I'm sure of with respect to the NE Caribbean is that you have at least 6 days to get ready for Gaston. It could go about anywhere at this point. Nothing to do but watch and wait for a few days.

[cycloneye]

Wxman....what are your true thoughts about Gaston in relation to the islands? Just curious....

Wxman57, what is your first analysis of Gastons future intensity but more important,the track?

I asked that question earlier,but as the pages of the thread changed,maybe he didn't see it,but is the one question that all of us who live in the NE Caribbean has right now.

It seems to have fair outflow now, but if you look at a WV loop you'll see a deepening trof east of Earl that's heading for Gaston. If it dips down too far, it could cause some strong shear tomorrow. I was a bit surprised that the models all went from nothing developing to major hurricane. But I guess it could survive and become a hurricane.

The only thing I'm sure of with respect to the NE Caribbean is that you have at least 6 days to get ready for Gaston. It could go about anywhere at this point. Nothing to do but watch and wait for a few days.

Thank you for that brief discussion. Is a wait and see time for us here,but at the same time,to be prepared if it is headed this way.

[Gustywind]

For some reason, this one has me very nervous....been through enough of them to notice the difference in "gut feelings"

Absolutely BatZVI, i understand. Looks like our islands in the Leewards are like a punching ball for all these systems.
That's why we should be very vigilant as the season continues to heat up. As Cycloneye mentionned it before in some posts, pure coincidence or not Gaston was Georges in 1998 they changed the name of Georges for Gaston. Not a good memory!!! Let's hope for the best keeping our fingers crossed during the next couple of days.

[Buck]

Ivanhater, I agree. I've been comparing this season to 1998 as well. Interesting that it is the same name list as well.

[BatzVI]

Thanks for all the responses....we are prepared here at my place...it's very weird driving and seeing all the windburnt and broken trees...brings me back to Marilyn memories...something that I really never want to see again, but we can't control Mother Nature....on a good note, we just got our power back on, now if only they'd get the cable going so I could have a distraction...lol

[Patrick99]

Has me a little edgy too. It seems to be in/heading for that sweet spot, the kind of storm/track that can conceivably produce a September SFL hit.

[BatzVI]

Spent 30 years in Palm Beach County, so I know what you mean...

[bvigal]

Pic I saved of this a week ago, was already giving me a bad feeling, lots of energy! Look at it plowing through the SAL this morning!

[BatzVI]

Glad I'm not the only one....

[gatorcane]

It certainly is in an area where the Caribbean and SE U.S down-the-road can be a target especially if the system moves through the Caribbean and starts a curve Northward in the Western Caribbean. But its moving rather slowly and models do some strange movements with this the next 5 days. In fact it won't even be at the Leewards and 5 days, so at least another 10+ days if it reaches the U.S. So there is a lot of time for troughs to develop and the pattern to setup downstream to deflect it from the U.S. Of course the converse is true as well. Namely the pattern could setup to prevent recurvature by then. The islands certainly have a raised threat with this one in my opinion.

[HurricaneBelle]

2010 NE Caribbean is starting to shape up like 2004 Florida.

[LaBreeze]

Africa has started using the Atlantic as a bowling alley. She's got quite a few right hooks going there. Hopefully no strikes!

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Note that is already a category 2 at the end headed in the general direction of the leewards With a ridge to the north