ATL: GASTON - Models

[ColinDelia]

That would not be good

[ColinDelia]

This bears looking at again.

[Ivanhater]

Picked up hitting Carolinas

[Vortex]

very similar to hurricane david in 1979

[blazess556]

Picked up hitting Carolinas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336m.gif

also, look at the activity in the east. the cape verde train aint stoppin soon.

Edit by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags

[Ivanhater]

This run is very concerning for the Caribbean. IMO, we are going to see some Central America, Gulf, and East coast runs in the next couple of days. Not gonna recurve before the Caribbean imo...

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, what a crazy CV train!!!!
I can't keep up with this...

[KWT]

The 18z certainly is possible if Gaston can stay far enough south between say 120-144hrs and get into the Caribbean Sea south of say 16N...

FWIW though if it does get in where it does I'd probably favour this one getting even further west then the GFS suggests it gets to be honest, though its quite possible the GFS is too far south this run. The 12z maybe closer but either way I think the GFS has the right broad idea.

Ivanhater...agreed this one is another threat to at least the E.Caribbean...

[ColinDelia]

very similar to hurricane david in 1979

First Hurricane I ever "tracked". A special place in my heart. Lol.

[Vortex]

likewise colin I was 5 and my father let me watch it from the back of the family car...after that i was hooked..

[LowndesCoFire]

While a recurve from USA is possible, I think that a fish storm is not very likely.
The islands mostly likely will be affected.

oooooh, KWT is gonna get you for demeaning his recurve!

[ColinDelia]

likewise colin I was 5 and my father let me watch it from the back of the family car...after that i was hooked..

oh wow. I don't wanna get too off topic but .. I get it

[KWT]

One thing that needs to watched is just how well the models are handling Fiona...because that system is probably the one wildcard that could well lead to more northward motion then the GFS is currently seeing, esp as its never been keen on Fiona and maybe somewhat under-estimating Fiona's staying power and thus maybe too quick in reducing the weakness that would in theory be left behind by Fiona as it moves out with Earl to the north.

I think we are at least 48hrs away from having models we can put more faith into, right now the models are not to be trusted...well certainly less then normal anyway!

[LowndesCoFire]

One thing that needs to watched is just how well the models are handling Fiona...because that system is probably the one wildcard that could well lead to more northward motion then the GFS is currently seeing, esp as its never been keen on Fiona and maybe somewhat under-estimating Fiona's staying power and thus maybe too quick in reducing the weakness that would in theory be left behind by Fiona as it moves out with Earl to the north.

I think we are at least 48hrs away from having models we can put more faith into, right now the models are not to be trusted...well certainly less then normal anyway!

Isnt Fiona going north because she caught up to Earl. How will the distance between Fiona and Gaston play into G's track?

[Ivanhater]

I highly doubt Fiona will be a factor given her current state. She will likely dissipate sooner rather than later.

[KWT]

Indeed Ivanhater thats probably most likely solution to occur now with Fiona, still its a wildcard that we can't be totally sure about...

I'd say though for now most of the models are too far east with this one and the GFS has a fairly realistic looking set-up with Gaston...and this one will be a long tracker for sure as steering patterns aren't quite as agressive as they were with Earl in the C.Atlantic.

Wonder how strong the hurricane models will go with this one tonight?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I highly doubt Fiona will be a factor given her current state. She will likely dissipate sooner rather than later.

Agreed, It's Toast.

[Dean4Storms]

Trend here with GFS is further west before a recurve and the GFS has been recurving them too soon early on from what we've seen thus far this year. The key to where this ends up will be the next 3-4 days IMO, if it heads for the eastern Carib. that has to indicate a stronger sub-tropical ridge.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

18z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Whats with the little loop da loop at the beginning of the run? weird..