ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[tgenius]

Well the ACE will deff be spiking in the last 2 weeks that have happend; My question becomes what is the likelyhood that "gaston" becomes an EC threat (or a FL threat)? I know its at least 1-2 weeks out, but is the high supposed to be building back in?

[ROCK]

Well the ACE will deff be spiking in the last 2 weeks that have happend; My question becomes what is the likelyhood that "gaston" becomes an EC threat (or a FL threat)? I know its at least 1-2 weeks out, but is the high supposed to be building back in?

thats a great question...no one knows...not even METS would stick their neck out this early in the game....I would be looking at the CMC and EURO for track right now...eventhough the EURO just now picked it up I do expect it to flip tonight. The ensembles will be helpful later this evening...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Where do you all think this will head? Will it stay moving west and possibly affect the islands?

At first glance, this seems to have a higher probability of a direct threat to the islands. The expected building ridges to the north would serve to block the early recurve scenario that we have seen recur again and again this season.

It appears this will maintain a more westerly motion for a longer time than our other systems. However, things can and do often change and the initial synoptic setup picture we see today could be quite different 5 days+ from now.

If I was living in the islands though, I would definitely be watching this with a keen interest, and the next few storms leaving Africa, as long as the Bermuda High is expected to expand westward (or merge with an east US coast high) and strengthen. That setup allows storms to take longer westward paths into the Caribbean and beyond.

[Ivanhater]

[fd122]

Where do you all think this will head? Will it stay moving west and possibly affect the islands?

At first glance, this seems to have a higher probability of a direct threat to the islands. The expected building ridges to the north would serve to block the early recurve scenario that we have seen recur again and again this season.

It appears this will maintain a more westerly motion for a longer time than our other systems. However, things can and do often change and the initial synoptic setup picture we see today could be quite different 5 days+ from now.

If I was living in the islands though, I would definitely be watching this with a keen interest, and the next few storms leaving Africa, as long as the Bermuda High is expected to expand westward (or merge with an east US coast high) and strengthen. That setup allows storms to take longer westward paths into the Caribbean and beyond.

Thanks for your reply. I'm still a novice when it comes to all these meteorological concepts.

[Frank2]

What a change from the relentless season bust talk not so long ago

See, I told you it'd get busy (LOL) - kidding...

The level of activity is exceptional, that's for sure - the CSU folks must be toasting each other with champagne for being so smart (lol)...

I'd have to agree that perhaps [Gaston] might be more of an issue, but time will tell...

Frank

[jlauderdal]

What a change from the relentless season bust talk not so long ago

See, I told you it'd get busy (LOL) - kidding...

The level of activity is exceptional, that's for sure - the CSU folks must be toasting each other with champagne for being so smart (lol)...

I'd have to agree that perhaps [Gaston] might be more of an issue, but time will tell...

Frank

they have a ways to go to hit their numbers so lets not pull out the bubbly yet

[plasticup]

The model's definitely keep it further south than this season's previous hurricanes. And at the end of the five day they show the Bermuda high solidly in place, which would continue that westward motion. Obviously we'll know more in 4-5 days, but this is definitely one to watch.

[gtalum]

Shall I be the first to say it?

OMG!!! It's a CAT 5 HEADING DIRECTLY FOR TAMPA BAY!!!!!!

There, that's out of the way at least.

[PerfectStorm]

I believe the upgrade is in effect officially Gaston as per Bay News 9 here in Tampa.

[Ivanhater]

Officially Gaston

000
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[plasticup]

THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...

That daisy-chain of waves sure did deliver.

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

Interesting tid bit from the latest disco

THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS.

[HurrMark]

I hope Gaston runs out of gas pretty quickly....a bit concerned about this one...the same islands which were brushed by Earl and to a lesser degree by Fiona may get a more direct wallop from this one early next week.

[CrazyC83]

I feel this one will be like the name he replaced 12 years ago, at least in track...

[Ivanhater]

Reminder to remove IMG tags when quoting.

[caneseddy]

I keep remembering back to Monday evening when Bryan Norcross on TWC stated that he was more concerned about then Invest98L than of Fiona, even when everyone was panicking about Fiona being a possible monster into the US

[gtalum]

Well, this historical image certainly clarifies where Gaston will end up:



Somewhere between Mississippi and Spain.

[jaxfladude]

That is not good!!!