ATL: GASTON - Models

[cycloneye]

GASTON!!

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WHXX01 KWBC 011858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC WED SEP 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092010) 20100901 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100901  1800   100902  0600   100902  1800   100903  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  36.2W   13.0N  38.1W   13.3N  39.8W   13.6N  41.5W
BAMD    12.8N  36.2W   13.3N  38.0W   13.8N  39.2W   14.4N  40.5W
BAMM    12.8N  36.2W   13.2N  38.1W   13.6N  39.5W   14.0N  40.8W
LBAR    12.8N  36.2W   13.3N  38.4W   13.8N  40.6W   14.6N  42.7W
SHIP        35KTS          43KTS          51KTS          57KTS
DSHP        35KTS          43KTS          51KTS          57KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100903  1800   100904  1800   100905  1800   100906  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  43.3W   15.2N  47.4W   16.0N  52.5W   16.2N  58.1W
BAMD    15.3N  42.3W   17.0N  46.9W   18.3N  52.7W   19.0N  59.4W
BAMM    14.6N  42.6W   16.0N  46.8W   16.8N  51.9W   16.8N  58.0W
LBAR    15.6N  44.7W   18.5N  48.7W   22.0N  52.5W   24.9N  54.7W
SHIP        63KTS          76KTS          83KTS          89KTS
DSHP        63KTS          76KTS          83KTS          89KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  36.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  33.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  30.8W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  60NM


[Ivanhater]

Models missed this one. I find it very unlikely it recurves this far south and that far east on the Euro. The Euro sure has been given some wild runs lately.

[shah8]

Fiona is pretty much the key here. Euro is is pulling Gaston into a hole made by a moderately extratropical Fiona. If Fiona stays south and as a distinct tropical entity, this solution will not verify. CMC absorbs Fiona into extratropical Earl early on.

[MWatkins]

Not sure the Euro initialized TD9, looks like it might be tracking the wave behind it.
TD9 will not be east of 55W in 216 hours, there's almost zero chance of that, so once again the extended Euro is a guessing game.

Seriously...look what it was doing with Fiona...I suppose you can take any one run of this years model and see it verify out a week later because almost every possibility is covered with the inconsistency from run to run...west, north, east etc.

MW

[Ivanhater]

Not sure the Euro initialized TD9, looks like it might be tracking the wave behind it.
TD9 will not be east of 55W in 216 hours, there's almost zero chance of that, so once again the extended Euro is a guessing game.

Seriously...look what it was doing with Fiona...I suppose you can take any one run of this years model and see it verify out a week later because almost every possibility is covered with the inconsistency from run to run...west, north, east etc.

MW

I'm very weary with the models on this one Mike. All the models missed a developing cyclone (Now Gaston). They seem confused what to do with it now that all of sudden a tropical storm is inserted into the initialization. Like you said, the Euro spit out an unlikely solution of pulling this due NW from deep in the tropics and sitting for days.

[cycloneye]

[Duke95]

Does NGPS have that thing going Southeast?

[Ivanhater]

SHIPS goes up to 90kts

LGEM goes to 105kts

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Wasn't "Gaston" the big, burly, good looking bad guy in Disney's Beauty & the Beast?
that may be a similar description for our storm a few days from now.

[SoupBone]

Wasn't "Gaston" the big, burly, good looking bad guy in Disney's Beauty & the Beast?
that may be a similar description for our storm a few days from now.

Yes he was. To go from a 20% to a TS that quick I hope is not telling of this storm....

[thetruesms]

Wasn't "Gaston" the big, burly, good looking bad guy in Disney's Beauty & the Beast?
that may be a similar description for our storm a few days from now.

My, what a guy


edit - oh man, how'd I get beaten to the punch on this one?

[plasticup]

Does NGPS have that thing going Southeast?

NGPS ate paint chips as a child.

[Ivanhater]

This is an experimental model over on Eastern...really great view of possible structure of Gaston

[JtSmarts]

Wow, that's an amazing model but terrifying for the Islands!

[SoupBone]

That would be VERY bad for the islands...what do they use to produce those models IvanHater?

[ROCK]

Nice model Mike....never heard of it or saw it before....must run off some global support I would think...

[thetruesms]

Well, it's pretty clearly a variant of the WRF given the title and URL, but it's hard to tell much more than that without a known link to a description of the model

[Wx_Warrior]

The WWE model? LOL...sorry, couldn't resist!

[x-y-no]

This is an experimental model over on Eastern...really great view of possible structure of Gaston

An experimental model coded by whom?

I googled for KWRF and couldn't find anything but references to the radio stations.

[gtalum]

Is it just me, or have the models all shifted right? To my untrained eye it looks like most of them are seeing a turn that either avoids the islands entirely or just clips the northeasternmost islands.