ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Looking better but still need a better surface reflection. the mid level is still very vigorous and it seems this morning there is a little bit more low level curvature. still has another 24 hours minimum until we are looking at a depression or very close too.

You are much slower on development than NHC.

[x-y-no]

Well, I had been pretty skeptical of this one due to the lack of model support, but now it looks to me like this will go. Maybe as early as this afternoon, but very likely by tomorrow.

I have a hard time seeing it moving as slowly as the Euro takes it - GFS appears to have a better handle on that at the moment.

[TheBurn]

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better but still need a better surface reflection. the mid level is still very vigorous and it seems this morning there is a little bit more low level curvature. still has another 24 hours minimum until we are looking at a depression or very close too.

You are much slower on development than NHC.

well remember fiona it was 80% for nearly 3 days.. lol and said development could occur at anytime.. also it still says anytime in the next 48 hours..

[plasticup]

Ah, the latitude game. Thoughts on CMC keeping it below 15 N even as it passes 50 W? If that pans out, it would be conducive to the season's first hurricane in the Caribbean Sea.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[hurricaneCW]

Ah, the latitude game. Thoughts on CMC keeping it below 15 N even as it passes 50 W? If that pans out, it would be conducive to the season's first hurricane in the Caribbean Sea.

I don't think this one's going south into the Caribbean, the trend this season has been for weaker subtropical ridging and plenty of weaknesses. The one's that traverse the Caribbean are going to be the low latitude storms that develop west of 50W. The later half of September and October is probably when we'll see a Caribbean cruiser.

[HURAKAN]

Fiona and 98L

[BensonTCwatcher]

The globals don't have this one yet, maybe the CMC is better on this one in the early going. This one could be a real threat to the islands. I would not say looking out at the CMC and GFS that this goes into the carrib. There is a huge trough digging down intothe SW CONUS on the CMC that if, it holds would sweep up any TC.

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 98, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 352W, 30, 1006, DB

30 knots

[Macrocane]

This morning is full of surprises, 98L looks very good and it still has little model support, I guess that happens when we are near teh peak of the season every wave is worth watching.

[Vortex]

long term...if fiona decides to pull up stationary around 28N/72W this would provide a weakness for future gaston and lift it north. If not gaston should be able to make it far west before any recurvature based on the current/forecasted synoptics by the globals...

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 041745.GIF



Looking good

[ROCK]

tonight we will have code red if this keeps up...


or sooner....

[blazess556]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al092010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009011309
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
NINE, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2010, TD, O, 2010083100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, 4, AL092010
AL, 09, 2010083000, , BEST, 0, 94N, 207W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083012, , BEST, 0, 99N, 236W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 251W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 265W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 280W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083112, , BEST, 0, 112N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 118N, 308W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 121N, 321W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090106, , BEST, 0, 122N, 335W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 352W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 225, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,

[tolakram]

Yep, renumber.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982010_al092010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009011308
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Not official until it appears on the NHC page, of course.

[Aric Dunn]

wow really they upgraded.. interesting..

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if they got a good ASCAT image or something..

[Weatherfreak000]

So much for the naysaying


Some members need to remember to use their EYES first, their models second. Great call on this one ROCK, we nailed it.

[ROCK]

I wonder if they got a good ASCAT image or something..

I have been looking for a pass since last night.....