ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

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Aquawind
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#121 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:32 pm

SAL and dry for a couple more days alright.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... itEW5.html
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#122 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:33 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I would go 40-50% on next TWO based on current trends.


yeah WF I would also....hard to believe they just gave it a 10% increase from earlier today...I guess because models werent seeing it...
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#123 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:34 pm

I don't think they will increase any tonight. They will most likely wait for visible in the morning and take it from there. You never know who is working the shift tonight though :wink:
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#124 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:37 pm

It's typical for them to slow play far in the atlantic I suppose. I look to see if the storm is developing overnight, as opposed to the D-Max craze, and make my opinion there.


We are looking IMO at a storm that is developed convection as well as vorticity, as this map will demonstrate.

Image


And, as I said earlier, this is all happening leading INTO the D-Max. Code Orange all the way here.


Edit: Ivan, vorticity maps show increase in organization, so I would indeed say they need to increase odds.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#125 Postby Aquawind » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:40 pm

Sanibel wrote:I wonder if the MJO is weakening?



If I am reading this correct it's not favorable with the latest analysis but, is forecast to be favorable for September..

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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#126 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:40 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Gaston, est'ce que c'est toi?

Non pas encore, mais si ça continue ainsi ce sera moi :) :lol:
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#127 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:42 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#128 Postby T'Bonz » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:43 pm

Gustywind wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:Gaston, est'ce que c'est toi?

Non pas encore, mais si ça continue ainsi ce sera moi :) :lol:


:ggreen:
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#129 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 31, 2010 10:46 pm

Gustywind wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:Gaston, est'ce que c'est toi?

Non pas encore, mais si ça continue ainsi ce sera moi :) :lol:


développement prend temps
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#130 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Aug 31, 2010 11:00 pm

Gustywind wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:Gaston, est'ce que c'est toi?

Non pas encore, mais si ça continue ainsi ce sera moi :) :lol:


Oui, c'est vrai ~ c'est possible.
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#131 Postby MWatkins » Tue Aug 31, 2010 11:23 pm

I am impressed with 98L despite the overall lack of model support. It has that classic S shape to it, and the banded convection is coming together. I didn't expect much from it earlier today, but from a structure standpoint it looks more impressive than Fiona does right now...

Look for this to go to code "Orange" at the 2am.

MW
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#132 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 31, 2010 11:28 pm

Image

Nice structure.
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#133 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 31, 2010 11:32 pm

98L looking great and thanks to freetranslation.com for translating the French in the thread!! lol
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#134 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:00 am

still has some stable air mass to the north but it is fighting it off pretty well. If Dee and Earl can do it I dont see why 98L can't....
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#135 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:07 am

Image

Latest
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#136 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:09 am

did the ASCAT miss it? like to see it....
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#137 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:10 am

ROCK wrote:did the ASCAT miss it? like to see it....


Doesn't it always miss? :lol:
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#138 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:12 am

Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:did the ASCAT miss it? like to see it....


Doesn't it always miss? :lol:


good point.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: Invest 98L - Discussion

#139 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:20 am

The envelope continues to expand. Excellent structure...
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#140 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:28 am

Canadian continues trend it started on the 12 Z....westbound with ridging well entrenched to the north....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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