ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[KWT]

Either way we do have tropical storm warnings out and even a TS can sometimes cause issues, esp when a decent hurricane has just rolled through a couple of days earlier...

[Blown Away]

SHIPS is following the NHC track and assuming that there will be no Earl interference. But I'm not so sure that Fiona will survive the next 48 hrs. I'm beginning to think the 00Z Euro and Canadian models may have the solution. Weak Fiona tracking east of Earl's track and/or being absorbed by Earl in 2 days.

Of course, if Fiona does survive and if it does follow the current forecast track, then there won't be much shear to prevent intensification.

Let's say Fiona does survive and we use the general track the NHC is advertising, won't Fiona be far enough north and east that it would be a very low probability to get forced back to the west long enough to reach the CONUS?

[gotoman38]

Somebody pick up FIONA recon? They;re rolling

[KWT]

I orginally thought that would be the case BA but from the looks of things Earl has gotten far enough west and slowly to allow Fiona to catch up and probably be lifted out by the same upper trough feature, it may get left behind but at a latitude that probably will be of little threat to the states anyway.

[JtSmarts]

I'm looking forward to seeing if JB has changed his mind also on Fiona being a US threat.

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

I'm in agreement with the NHC track, keeping Fiona weaker and well east of the U.S. Though if it isn't killed/absorbed by Earl, it could reach hurricane strength if Earl moves far off to the north.

[canes04]

Looking better each hour. Recon should be interesting.

Seems like Fiona is getting no love from the board!

[fci]

I'm looking forward to seeing if JB has changed his mind also on Fiona being a US threat.

I suspect that hardly a mention will be made.

[Buck]

Looking better each hour. Recon should be interesting.

Seems like Fiona is getting no love from the board!

I love Fiona! Nice, fresh name... raise that ACE baby!

[SoupBone]

I'm looking forward to seeing if JB has changed his mind also on Fiona being a US threat.

I suspect that hardly a mention will be made.

Never make mention of being incorrect. To be fair though this isn't over yet!

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

I'm in agreement with the NHC track, keeping Fiona weaker and well east of the U.S. Though if it isn't killed/absorbed by Earl, it could reach hurricane strength if Earl moves far off to the north.

If Fiona survives what latitude do you see her where she could become a hurricane?

[Gustywind]

[caribepr]

Watching again from far away!

[cycloneye]

I am back after 25 hours out without power and internet. Lets see what Fiona does as it nears the Caribbean.

[TheBurn]

Apparently coming soon to a theater near you Cycloneye

[Javlin]

Good to see you back Luis what you think was highest wind?

[Blown Away]

Welcome back Luis and I'm glad you are ok!! 24 hours w/o power is not to bad given you were a few hundred miles from a Cat 4!

Fiona looks better on satellite today vs yesterday, not sure how long that will last. When does the EURO run again??

[plasticup]

Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

That is a surprising comment from a person interested in weather. The average Joe does not look at model runs. I challenge you to find one person who is not a weather enthusiast and ask them to even name one of the models and see what they say. To do what you suggest would only hurt weather enthusiasts.

As for Fiona, her strength will be the key. Its too early to declare this a fish.

As some here know, I posted a similar comment about one week ago, per the dire thoughts at that time about a future Fiona becoming a terrible risk for the US, based on what the long-term models were showing at that time, so, as a person who worked in the weather business for a number of years, I'd have to agree, and in fact this topic was a the subject of a story last week on the cable news channels, concerning the fact that there seems to be "too much information" floating around out there today that only makes a person's life unnecessarily complicated...

Many of us have often cautioned people about using these very-long range 384-hour model runs because so much can and does change - while it's hard not to notice them, it's also best to ignore them, because what they show is usually (I'd say about 80% of the time) NOT what will happen, but are there and used by the forecaster to indicate possible long-range trends (especially when it concerns temperature and precipitation)...

Many were very upset at the model runs of one week to 10 days ago that showed Fiona presenting a terrible threat to the US, and of course that's a story still without an ending, but at this point, due to the unusual closeness of both Earl and Fiona, and due to a strong trough, it seems Fiona will recurve further east than Earl and similar to Danielle - and shows that the anxiety caused by many believing 10-Day model runs to be nothing more than wasted mental and physical energy...

As far as the question of who actually seeks out the model runs - not that many, but those who know to look for them are the basis of the comments posted that often upset the average person (though I'm sure they don't post them with the intention of upsetting anyone intentionally), so as the saying goes no man is an island, even when it comes to the Internet...

Life's difficult enough every day without making it any harder, so best to stick with the short-fuse model runs (96-hour, etc.) when something is on the map because the simple truth is that they are much more accurate...

Frank

You want to keep information from the public because it may worry them? Are you serious? Let people make their own decisions. Sensible people will know the huge margin of error on those models, and will keep their interest academic. But even if I want to get worked up over it, that's my business.

tl;dr: don't tell me what's good for me