ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

YEah. the past few hours is the best Fiona has looked yet.

[WeatherGuesser]

NHC 5 day keeps it out to sea as a TS, so apparently not a threat to anyone as of now.

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC 5 day keeps it out to sea as a TS, so apparently not a threat to anyone as of now.

Except for the Northern Leeward Islands, who area already under a TS Watch.

[Gustywind]

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS predicts 24 knots of shear in 24 hours increasing to 30 knots at 84 hours.

[Gustywind]

Much more convection associated with TS Fiona

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been up for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards Islands as TS Fiona is expected to pass very close to St Marteen and St Barth. Guadeloupe should deal with strong showers and tstorms with some gustywinds. More later. Stay tuned and be vigilant my friends from the Leewards!
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[Vortex]

appears to be getting better organized...may be short lived after today..

[Gustywind]

[GCANE]

She looks like she is firing a hot-tower.

A fair number of overshooting tops too.

A good sign she will ramp up soon.

[gatorcane]

I think there has been alot of hype on this board about this system over the past several days for no reason. I've continued to say I'm not really concerned about this system and believe it will pass east of the United States or dissipate due to the outflow of massive Earl.

Now the Euro has made the shift right that I expected it to do to join the model consensus. It's actually now the right outlier at this point ironically enough. Not only that all models are keeping Fiona very weak anyway and there should be enough shear from Earl's outflow to justify that happening. Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

[x-y-no]

Now the Euro has made the shift right that I expected it to do to join the model consensus. It's actually now the right outlier at this point ironically enough. Not only that all models are keeping Fiona very weak anyway and there should be enough shear from Earl's outflow to justify that happening. Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

It's starting to look that way, with the caveat that the Euro ensembles last night still clung to the westward solution.

[Dean4Storms]

I think there has been alot of hype on this board about this system over the past several days for no reason. I've continued to say I'm not really concerned about this system and believe it will pass east of the United States or dissipate due to the outflow of massive Earl.

Now the Euro has made the shift right that I expected it to do to join the model consensus. It's actually now the right outlier at this point ironically enough. Not only that all models are keeping Fiona very weak anyway and there should be enough shear from Earl's outflow to justify that happening. Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

I'm tired of your own hype. NHC still has Fiona stalling in the 5 day cone and there remains much uncertainty as even NHC indicates so please spare us your hype.

[plasticup]

NHC 5 day keeps it out to sea as a TS, so apparently not a threat to anyone as of now.

Except for the Northern Leeward Islands, who area already under a TS Watch.

Let's not forget Bermuda; it is the only piece of land that actually falls inside the cone.

[CourierPR]

I think there has been alot of hype on this board about this system over the past several days for no reason. I've continued to say I'm not really concerned about this system and believe it will pass east of the United States or dissipate due to the outflow of massive Earl.

Now the Euro has made the shift right that I expected it to do to join the model consensus. It's actually now the right outlier at this point ironically enough. Not only that all models are keeping Fiona very weak anyway and there should be enough shear from Earl's outflow to justify that happening. Maybe part of the reason is that should the general public be allowed to look at model runs that go out beyond 5 days? As you can see they hardly ever verify and cause undue speculation on various catastrophic scenarios that is not warranted.

I find your last statement amusing in light of your forecast bust with Alex. If you recall, you trumpeted how Alex would be no more than a depression at most because the models were showing that. Hoisted on your own pitard.

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 08, 2010083112, , BEST, 0, 158N, 544W, 35, 1006, TS

no change

[Vortex]

not so sure its at 15.8n based on latest vis..looks to be closer to 14.9

[Vortex]

00Z ecm ensembles still very far west from the se coast/fl and into the east gulf early next week..would not be surprised to see the euro back west on the 12z...

[Gustywind]

not so sure its at 15.8n based on latest vis..looks to be closer to 14.9