ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

#641 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:22 pm

blazess556 wrote:i know its the nam but it strengthens fiona a lot more on the 00z run tonight. maybe it got more data from the planes?

It has to reach 55W to have RECON going. Likely tomorrow.

Vortmax1 · #642 Postby **Vortmax1** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:23 pm

Fiona will be a tough track to forecast.
There's no way to get a grip on it now.
The ECM is flopping around and the GFS is even crazier!

#643 Postby **blazess556** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:24 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
blazess556 wrote:i know its the nam but it strengthens fiona a lot more on the 00z run tonight. maybe it got more data from the planes?

It has to reach 55W to have RECON going. Likely tomorrow.

i mean that all the data being taken from around earl maybe possibly be helping the models figure out what will happen ahead of fiona?

#644 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:25 pm

blazess556 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
blazess556 wrote:i know its the nam but it strengthens fiona a lot more on the 00z run tonight. maybe it got more data from the planes?

It has to reach 55W to have RECON going. Likely tomorrow.

i mean that all the data being taken from around earl maybe possibly be helping the models figure out what will happen ahead of fiona?

True, there was a plane tonight sampling the surroundings of Earl. That should also help Fiona's forecast.

Weatherfreak000 · #645 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:43 pm

When Fiona hits the pool of warm water that ramped up Earl, it's gonna be look out all over again but this go around the potential for more ridging.

#646 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:51 pm

it sure looks like the center is reforming/tightening up right under the deep convection near 15.4/50.7...

Aquawind · #647 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:56 pm

I can go along with that.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-ir2.html

#648 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 9:57 pm

Latest nhc disco is interesting. How often do you see them indicate they are basically throwing out the ecmwf solution at the moment. Lol.

What do you think about that all you euro huggers out there?

Weatherfreak000 · #649 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest nhc disco is interesting. How often do you see them indicate they are basically throwing out the ecmwf solution at the moment. Lol.

What do you think about that all you euro huggers out there?

It had to come to this! it's a la nina :lol:

Website · #650 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:02 pm

SouthFLTropics · #651 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:Latest nhc disco is interesting. How often do you see them indicate they are basically throwing out the ecmwf solution at the moment. Lol.

What do you think about that all you euro huggers out there?

SouthFLTropics · #652 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:04 pm

That's an awfully wide five day cone and once again shows Fiona slamming on the brakes...

That tells me one thing...NHC is WAY unsure about this puppy right now... :think:

SFT

#653 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:04 pm

Vortex wrote:it sure looks like the center is reforming/tightening up right under the deep convection near 15.4/50.7...

Roger that!! Looks like the LLC is going under that convection to me as well.

#654 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:05 pm

What's sad is that a good chunk of the islands now under a TS watch were under a Hurricane warning 6 hours ago. Theoretically, is it possible to be under both at the same time for different storms?

ConvergenceZone · #655 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:05 pm

Hmm, I wonder what feature is making Fiona slam on her brakes at the end of the period...

#656 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:05 pm

What's gonna happen after day 4-5, does Fiona get trapped under a ridge and get forced west, does Fiona stall and meander until the next trough scoops her up, or does Fiona dissipate? This is a very interesting system and it's interaction with a powerful hurricane.

#657 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:06 pm

[*]

SouthFLTropics wrote:That's an awfully wide five day cone and once again shows Fiona slamming on the brakes...

That tells me one thing...NHC is WAY unsure about this puppy right now...

SFT

I totally agree with that. Some of the models tonight are bending it w or wsw At the end so will be interesting what the trends are for the 00z globals.

SouthFLTropics · #658 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:07 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Hmm, I wonder what feature is making Fiona slam on her brakes at the end of the period...

If I had to guess I'd say it's the big, bad ridge building in behind Earl...

SFT

#659 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:07 pm

I'm keeping an eye on this in SFL. I'm not worried about anything yet, but the trend continues to be west.

#660 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:08 pm

The discounted ecmwf per nhc at 11pm may be because the euro forecasted a deeper system possibly steering it left of most guidance ...The bamD moves fiona sw in the longer range as a result of a deeper system as well...Here's my concern latest imagery clearly suggest that the center is reforming under the deep convection. Also, backed by the NHC location at 11pm..If this is the case and with about 24 hours left of relatively light wind shear and increasingly warm waters I would not be shocked whatsoever to have a 60mph storm by late tuesday morning...

ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

Re:

Who is online