ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[BigB0882]

That was sudden and quick, straight to TS! I also noticed the slow down and bend slightly West. This one is one EVERYONE has to watch at this point. It could do anything.

[caneseddy]

Based on the discussion, it seems that for now, the NHC are going with the GFS group (GFS, HWRF, GFDL) for intensity and track rather than the Euro; they must believe that Earl will impinge Fiona all the way

[SeminoleWind]

For those in the islands, don't take down your shutters or get rid of your supplies just yet!!!

Looks like the same trough that picks up Earl will carry Fiona out.

I wouldn't count on the same trough that grabs Earl to take Fiona to far

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on the discussion, it seems that for now, they are going with the GFS group (GFS, HWRF, GFDL) for intensity and track rather than the Euro

I think they are hedging their bets on this first advisory. They say in the discussion that they are going with the GFS group but then in the forecast plots it appears that they are leaning towards the Euro solution. Once Earl gets moving and away from the islands the picture will become much clearer...

SFT

[Macrocane]

So this is the 4th named storm of August, not too bad for a season that a lot of people called a "bust".

[SouthFLTropics]

So this is the 4th named storm of August, not too bad for a season that a lot of people called a "bust".

Maybe the NHC is trying to meet a quota for the month...

I for one am suprised it got upgraded to TS status based on its appearance...

[Macrocane]

Yeah I'm actually kind of surprised too, but maybe they're expecting the the bands to wrap arounf the broad center on the next few hours.

[SoupBone]

So this is the 4th named storm of August, not too bad for a season that a lot of people called a "bust".

Maybe the NHC is trying to meet a quota for the month...

I for one am suprised it got upgraded to TS status based on its appearance...

Well it sure is odd. I'm not a pro-met and I don't get paid the big bucks to make those decisions though so I'll refrain from questioning them...

[Evil Jeremy]

I haven't been keeping track of this one, so can someone tell me, is this one still a possible threat to Florida?

[RL3AO]

I haven't been keeping track of this one, so can someone tell me, is this one still a possible threat to Florida?

Never mind. Thought this was the Earl thread.

[Evil Jeremy]

I haven't been keeping track of this one, so can someone tell me, is this one still a possible threat to Florida?

Never mind. Thought this was the Earl thread.

Is that a yes or no lol?

[RL3AO]

Is that a yes or no lol?

Its still early on. Its a Florida to Iceland to Bermuda threat right now.

[AdamFirst]

One local TV met says this will follow Earl out to sea. Pretty much dismissed it.

We'll see...

[Ivanhater]

THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/21. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHOWS FIONA TURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY FOLLOWING EARL AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS KEEP FIONA AS A WEAK SYSTEM AND SHOW IT
CONTINUING TO THE NORTH IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND EARL. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS A STRONGER FIONA AND SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE THE
CYCLONE CAN RECURVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN LIES A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAKER GFDL
AND HWRF.

[Sanibel]

If Fiona becomes a hurricane and catches Earl it could establish a Fujiwara effect and drive Earl more towards the coast. I won't hazard a guess however on a prediction.

[Gustywind]

Discussion from Jeff Masters WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1594
Fiona forms
Tropical Storm Fiona finally gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be given a name, but continues to struggle with dry air. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity comes and goes, and there are not many intense thunderstorms near the storm's center. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to increase to moderate, 10 - 15 knots, by Tuesday. Fiona is moving quickly to the west, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona, and probably arrest the storm's development. A scenario predicted by the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy Fiona through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario, championed by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for Fiona to stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast early next week. At this point, it is difficult to choose between these two scenarios. History suggests that a storm in Fiona's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Gustywind]

[Duke95]

With it having sped up to 24 mph, I don't see how it avoids significant shear from Earl. They are going to have to interact in some way.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

So this is the 4th named storm of August, not too bad for a season that a lot of people called a "bust".

Statistically 2/3 of all storms are named after Sept. 1st so we are on a pace for 18 named storms.