ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[dexterlabio]

Raw T# just went to 6.3.

The eyewall hot-tower did the trick.

Eyewall is closing up.

I am afraid RI maybe underway.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt07L.html

Could that be a pinhole eye appearing?

[Stephanie]

You guys up north are worrying too much at this point...its still at least 4 days away.

If this thing was potentially heading in your direction, I think you'd be a little concerned. We don't have these kind of storms up here like you and are WAAAAY overdue for one.

Lets hope if you get this you'll get the west side of the storm. Alot of the homes are wood frame construction up north,not like Florida.If this can stay 100 to 200 miles to your east I think you'll be ok. Lets hope.

We had in Atlantic City, dilapidated houses collapse in the storms we had during the spring. The East Coast up here is not prepared for storms like these or storm surge. We probably will be on the west side, but the strength of this storm will be more than we are used to even with a Nor'easter.

[caribepr]

I'm very safe, Gustywind! I'm in Maine...watching from 2000 miles away and wishing I was home.

[HURAKAN]

Sombrero Island is now in the eye

[CJPILOT]

We had in Atlantic City, dilapidated houses collapse in the storms we had during the spring. The East Coast up here is not prepared for storms like these or storm surge. We probably will be on the west side, but the strength of this storm will be more than we are used to even with a Nor'easter.

Stephanie,

You are EXACTLY correct. Storm surge aside think of areas like DC and points north that have not seen winds like this in a LONG time. Even a close pass could bring some serious winds to areas that are far from prepared. I checked some of the DC news sites this morning and they are at least beginning to socialize the idea of Earl and urging people to keep an eye on the Atlantic.

[GCANE]

: Could that be a pinhole eye appearing?

Sure looks like it.

ADT seems to think so too.

[CrazyC83]

We had in Atlantic City, dilapidated houses collapse in the storms we had during the spring. The East Coast up here is not prepared for storms like these or storm surge. We probably will be on the west side, but the strength of this storm will be more than we are used to even with a Nor'easter.

Stephanie,

You are EXACTLY correct. Storm surge aside think of areas like DC and points north that have not seen winds like this in a LONG time. Even a close pass could bring some serious winds to areas that are far from prepared. I checked some of the DC news sites this morning and they are at least beginning to socialize the idea of Earl and urging people to keep an eye on the Atlantic.

DC has more room between itself and the projected path and is outside of the cone, but could still feel its effects if Earl goes left of the forecast track for sure.

[HURAKAN]

LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

[artist]

For those here that are concerned about this for the states later this week (and anyone really) that may be affected by Earl, here at s2k, a forum was put together to help you in your preparations, and as jpmia mentioned earlier, sometimes the simple act of doing something will help you feel better. There you will find lists of things to have on hand, etc. There is also a thread on pet safety. Here is a link to the forum -
viewforum.php?f=30
and the direct link as to what you might want to have on hand. It has been put together by members here that have been through storms-
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=58904

I hope this helps you all. And remember, it is better to be prepared and have it miss you than to not and have it hit.
Hopefully, noone will be.

ooops - should be s2k! I am changing it. lol

[ROCK]

he is bombing out thats for sure....wow!! 120mph mid cat-3....ouch...NOAA better be flying some upper air data missions out in front of this....

[Stephanie]

For those here that are concerned about this for the states later this week (and anyone really) that may be affected by Earl, here at s3k, a forum was put together to help you in your preparations, and as jpmia mentioned earlier, sometimes the simple act of doing something will help you feel better. There you will find lists of things to have on hand, etc. There is also a thread on pet safety. Here is a link to the forum -
viewforum.php?f=30
and the direct link as to what you might want to have on hand. It has been put together by members here that have been through storms-
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=58904

I hope this helps you all. And remember, it is better to be prepared and have it miss you than to not and have it hit.
Hopefully, noone will be.

Thank you artist for posting those links. We appreciate your help!

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday at 11 am, Earl had winds of 75 mph and a pressure of 985 mb. Now, 120 mph and 960 mb. 25 mb in 24 hours is RI

[Fego]

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

[artist]

For those here that are concerned about this for the states later this week (and anyone really) that may be affected by Earl, here at s3k, a forum was put together to help you in your preparations, and as jpmia mentioned earlier, sometimes the simple act of doing something will help you feel better. There you will find lists of things to have on hand, etc. There is also a thread on pet safety. Here is a link to the forum -
viewforum.php?f=30
and the direct link as to what you might want to have on hand. It has been put together by members here that have been through storms-
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=58904

I hope this helps you all. And remember, it is better to be prepared and have it miss you than to not and have it hit.
Hopefully, noone will be.

Thank you artist for posting those links. We appreciate your help!

oooops, that should read s2k! I corrected mine above.

[CJPILOT]

he is bombing out thats for sure....wow!! 120mph mid cat-3....ouch...NOAA better be flying some upper air data missions out in front of this....

Indeed, imagine the potential if a well formed Earl shifts a bit further west and makes it to the Gulf Stream prior to battering the east coast.

Reference your comment on high altitude recon, it looks like a full court press is on the books. Aside from the USAF Hurricane Hunters and NOAA P-3’s, there is a high altitude mission (presuming the Gulfstream), as well as a NASA DC-8 mission scheduled for today.

[dexterlabio]

LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

so that means a major now?

[HURAKAN]

beautiful and so destructive

[Riptide]

Here is a graph of the current sea surface temperatures. It looks like Earl might move over some of the highest heat content in the basin. Not surprised NHC is forecasting Category 4 intensity. Upper-level conditions are conductive as well.

[HURAKAN]

LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

so that means a major now?

Yes, and expected to intensify further, up to 145 mph in the next 48 hours

[yzerfan]

From the 11 am:

THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.

I suspect a lot of emergency planners from the OBX northward right now are having a surprisingly busy Monday.