ATL: FIONA - Models

[Comanche]

Anyone knows what is JB thinking of 97L?

I was going to ask the same, this is where JB can shine if he remains objective.

[ericinmia]

Anyone knows what is JB thinking of 97L?

I was going to ask the same, this is where JB can shine if he remains objective.

He is sticking to his original ideas this morning that this would be a south east storm. He said that the models will catch up later as the storm develops.

[Dean4Storms]

Need to watch 97L for sure and Earl's acceleration once off the US East Coast. I just don't see Fiona developing fast enough to follow the weakness behind Earl. We are now seeing with Earl how quickly the ridge built back in once Danielle lifted out and the push he's is getting toward the west. I expect the same similar situation with Fiona, by the time she begins to deepen Earl has accelerated off and the ridge rides back in and turns Fiona westward. Makes all the sense in the world after what we just witnessed with Earl!!

[boca]

97L is starting to build up convection around the area closet to the center.On wxrisk.com site he feels really strong about a noncurving system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-avn.html

[Comanche]

Anyone knows what is JB thinking of 97L?

I was going to ask the same, this is where JB can shine if he remains objective.

He is sticking to his original ideas this morning that this would be a south east storm. He said that the models will catch up later as the storm develops.

South East storm meaning atlantic coast? (staying out of gulf)?

[Portastorm]

97L is starting to build up convection around the area closet to the center.On wxrisk.com site he feels really strong about a noncurving system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-avn.html

Yep, Tolleris (wxrisk.com) is making some very bold statements about 97L becoming Fiona and then becoming a monster Cat 3-4 hurricane which will threaten the SE US and/or Florida and possibly even the Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

97L is starting to build up convection around the area closet to the center.On wxrisk.com site he feels really strong about a noncurving system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-avn.html

I'll go there and read what he is saying boca, but I have to agree with him.

Everyone from eventually the Gulf, all of FL to NC need to keep up on Fiona!

[SoupBone]

Need to watch 97L for sure and Earl's acceleration once off the US East Coast. I just don't see Fiona developing fast enough to follow the weakness behind Earl. We are now seeing with Earl how quickly the ridge built back in once Danielle lifted out and the push he's is getting toward the west. I expect the same similar situation with Fiona, by the time she begins to deepen Earl has accelerated off and the ridge rides back in and turns Fiona westward. Makes all the sense in the world after what we just witnessed with Earl!!

I think that's a great point. If the high builds back in too quickly 97L may be left wandering west. Earl looks like he's at least considering a WNW motion (of course I could be wobble watching too).

[ROCK]

I am not sold on RECURVE either. 97L aint going to feel much weakness if its not as deep on appraoch to the islands. Right now a track into the Bahamas and a fork in the road as I see it.

[boca]

I am not sold on RECURVE either. 97L aint going to feel much weakness if its not as deep on appraoch to the islands. Right now a track into the Bahamas and a fork in the road as I see it.

A track thru the Bahamas is only 50 to 100 miles east of me being on the SE coast of Florida thats what I'm concerned about.I look at that storm from 1947 and hope that track doesn't verify.

[SFLcane]

I can't really see this missing the U.S. at the very least, assuming this goes on to develop and survive. The ridge is really going to strengthen in the wake of Earl, and this combined with the slow development should prevent a recurve.

[ROCK]

I am not sold on RECURVE either. 97L aint going to feel much weakness if its not as deep on appraoch to the islands. Right now a track into the Bahamas and a fork in the road as I see it.

A track thru the Bahamas is only 50 to 100 miles east of me being on the SE coast of Florida thats what I'm concerned about.I look at that storm from 1947 and hope that track doesn't verify.

Oh if a was a FL native I would be very concerned..the EURO ensembles clustered right near the tip of FL....then we have either the left or right turn....

[ronjon]

ok its the NOGAPs but it does show Fiona plowing west in the eastern Bahamas.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[Blown Away]

ok its the NOGAPs but it does show Fiona plowing west in the eastern Bahamas.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

I wish I could understand the high pressure isobars, to me I see a blocking ridge building over the SE CONUS that in theory would block 97L and steer towards SFL?

[Vortex]

noticed that earlier ronjon and seems plausible

[jlauderdal]

ok its the NOGAPs but it does show Fiona plowing west in the eastern Bahamas.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

nogaps as its moments, dont discount it like lbar

[Dean4Storms]

There with NOGAPS it shows a relative weakness still there between the eastern US Ridge and the Atlantic Ridge, but that weakness will be closing fairly fast with the ridging riding back in. Looks to me there that a slight stall could assume and then a turn back westward toward Florida as the east coast ridge builds south and eastward.

[AdamFirst]

There with NOGAPS it shows a relative weakness still there between the eastern US Ridge and the Atlantic Ridge, but that weakness will be closing fairly fast with the ridging riding back in. Looks to me there that a slight stall could assume and then a turn back westward toward Florida as the east coast ridge builds south and eastward.

Sort of like a Katrina track (FOR FLORIDA) where it bends to the south over the peninsula?

[jlauderdal]

There with NOGAPS it shows a relative weakness still there between the eastern US Ridge and the Atlantic Ridge, but that weakness will be closing fairly fast with the ridging riding back in. Looks to me there that a slight stall could assume and then a turn back westward toward Florida as the east coast ridge builds south and eastward.

Sort of like a Katrina track (FOR FLORIDA) where it bends to the south over the peninsula?

yes katrina actually headed SW

[Dean4Storms]

There with NOGAPS it shows a relative weakness still there between the eastern US Ridge and the Atlantic Ridge, but that weakness will be closing fairly fast with the ridging riding back in. Looks to me there that a slight stall could assume and then a turn back westward toward Florida as the east coast ridge builds south and eastward.

Sort of like a Katrina track (FOR FLORIDA) where it bends to the south over the peninsula?

Something similar, if Fiona gets trapped under the ridge she has nowhere else to go but back to the west and the separation that will begin due to Earl's Upper Level outflow pulling away would likely put Fiona in a very good upper level environment for strengthening.