ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[pcolaman]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes
Looking really impressive with the radar loops

[Aric Dunn]

Heads up PR?

well its doing another wobble closer to PR so depending on when that stops it could get rather close..

[CapeCod1995]

okay so i will know the path by tuesday night/wednesday morning?

[HURAKAN]

latest

[eastcoastFL]

Hopefully the models hold true and keep this Big Dog away from the US. Does anyone have any info on that subtropical ridge? Is the weakness still there? I read something about it building in and keeping earl to the west if his forward speed continues to decrease..

Anyone think that the East Coast of Florida could see some effects from earl? It has been pouring here since yesterday morning.

[Weatherfreak14]

It really looks like that this is riding more and more west missing its chance to turn NW.

[AdamFirst]

Anyone think that the East Coast of Florida could see some effects from earl? It has been pouring here since yesterday morning.

Rip currents, maybe...

[eastcoastFL]

okay so i will know the path by tuesday night/wednesday morning?

You won't know 100% but you will surely have a better idea. As you can see through the past 24 hours its very unpredictable.

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone think that the East Coast of Florida could see some effects from earl? It has been pouring here since yesterday morning.

Rip currents, maybe...

That I can deal with, just stay away from the beach.

[ravyrn]

okay so i will know the path by tuesday night/wednesday morning?

No. You'll just have a better idea of the path.

[ronjon]

Heads up PR?

well its doing another wobble closer to PR so depending on when that stops it could get rather close..

Looks like Earl as a major hurricane will run right over the BVI and northern US Virgin Islands. Will be extensive damage.

[tolakram]

Long range loop:



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[Sanibel]

I suspect the west wobble is due to imbalance in the storm structure. If so it should correct back into model track soon.

[pcolaman]

Looks like the ridge is holding and the dig to the west is still in place.Hope that the people on the east coast of Fla are paying att.!!!!

[CourierPR]

The farther west this bad boy gets the more nervous a lot of folks are going to become.

[x-y-no]

does anyone know what a 105 MPH hurricane do to cape cod?

Unless you're right on the shore, your main concern is downed trees/branches. House damage would be mostly related to fallen trees, flying debris. Power would be out for a considerable time, of course.

Coastal effects depend a lot on track - a storm making landfall to the west would cause flooding in Buzzards Bay and the south shore of the upper cape. A storm passing just east would cause extreme surf along the national seashore, coastal flooding on thr Cape Cod Bay side.

[Evil Jeremy]

If it doesn't change it's direction before the 11AM advisory, I see a Hurricane Warning for PR.

[CourierPR]

I suspect the west wobble is due to imbalance in the storm structure. If so it should correct back into model track soon.

Huh? Hurricanes spin like a top and wobble like a top.

[sevenleft]

I suspect the west wobble is due to imbalance in the storm structure. If so it should correct back into model track soon.

Huh? Hurricanes spin like a top and wobble like a top.

It isn't uncommon to see a storm "wobble" in the direction of the deepest convection. That is what Sanibel was getting at.

[CourierPR]

If it doesn't change it's direction before the 11AM advisory, I see a Hurricane Warning for PR.

I think The Bahamas might be included in watches and warnings in that event.