ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

One cat wet the bed, the other barfed all over the floor.

I get up asking myself what else could go wrong.

Then I turned on the news and saw the left shift.

Hint, never ask yourself what else could go wrong.

[TheBurn]

[x-y-no]

962mb in the last recon set.

115430 1826N 06301W 6978 02825 9629 +157 +103 292017 019 022 003 03
115500 1828N 06301W 6963 02837 9618 +159 +106 303011 013 013 002 03
115530 1829N 06301W 6969 02825 9617 +155 +110 297003 006 009 001 03
115600 1831N 06300W 6967 02828 9618 +151 +113 111007 012 013 002 00
115630 1833N 06259W 6967 02828 9622 +150 +121 112018 020 008 001 03

[CapeCod1995]

Models are shifting west, is this true?

[pcolaman]

One cat wet the bed, the other barfed all over the floor.

I get up asking myself what else could go wrong.

Then I turned on the news and saw the left shift.

Hint, never ask yourself what else could go wrong.

Wow nice Monday for you !! LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Models are shifting west, is this true?

not much.. but the nhc track forecast for the nw motion shifts a little every advisory..

[pcolaman]

Models are shifting west, is this true?

Yep

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful

[CapeCod1995]

i live on cape cod and i'm starting to get worried. what's the timeframe that i could be looking at a direct landfall from earl if it were to happen?

[x-y-no]

Models are shifting west, is this true?

6z GFS is very close offshore of the Outer Banks, and then Cape Cod (with transition beginning, putting the heavy weather on the west side over the Cape.)

[Aric Dunn]

notice how for it to make the next forecast position it needs to start heading a solid NW.. still only wobbles throughout the night with a general 285 motion... radar in the last couple hours has gone back to a 285 motion after a slight wobble ...
not going to make the next forecast position so the 11am track will sift and soon it will have to make a right angle to fit the forecast ... lol

[HURAKAN]

Glad that the NE quadrant isn't affecting the islands, RECON just measured 111 knots at flying level

[x-y-no]

i live on cape cod and i'm starting to get worried. what's the timeframe that i could be looking at a direct landfall from earl if it were to happen?

You're looking at Friday afternoon, maybe as late as late Friday night/early Saturday (wee hours).

My parents are in Falmouth, so I'm watching this real close too.

[plasticup]

i live on cape cod and i'm starting to get worried. what's the timeframe that i could be looking at a direct landfall from earl if it were to happen?

I wouldn't head for the hills yet, but you're likely to have a breezy weekend. Best to keep an eye on it - the NHC will have better forecasts for you in a couple of days.

[jaxfladude]

I trust that the forecasters and all those at the NHC/TPC know what they are doing, they may not be perfect, they are the among the best/the best in their profession.

[cycloneye]

Glad that the NE quadrant isn't affecting the islands, RECON just measured 111 knots at flying level

Yes,that is the good part of this event.

[GCANE]

Just need to see the eyewall fill in on the west quad.

Some overshooting tops on the NE eyewall may help to do just that.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

[HURAKAN]

very powerful

[CapeCod1995]

so i wouldn't be able to see the eye clearly becuase of darkness?

[HURAKAN]

so i wouldn't be able to see the eye clearly becuase of darkness?

No, simply because the eye hasn't cleared yet