ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Anyone have the latest radar image?

[WxGuy1]

how close will it come to nc

Just bookmark --> http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[supercane]

Anyone have the latest radar image?

Latest image from St Maarten radar:

Note that the web page apparently only updates once an hour sometime after the hour.

[Hurrilurker]

Satellite is out of blackout. IR shows a large area of intense convection and cold cloud tops; however, it's asymmetrical and a bit ragged, with no clear eye visible (although we know there is one from radar and recon). Most of those islands are probably being battered with some very strong wind gusts right now, as the most intese convection is right over them. Wind field appears to be expanding. Still sheared from the northeast, but outflow is expanding on the north side and it should move clear of it in the next day.

[Brent]

Looks a lot more symmetric:

[Hurrilurker]

Looks a lot more symmetric:

The whole field, yes. I mean the intense convection is still offset, and not yet wrapped around the center as it looked like it was going to do. But it's definitely developing, no question.

[supercane]

Latest image from St Maarten radar:

Note that the web page apparently only updates the image loop once an hour sometime after the hour.

[Gustywind]

Be on your guard my friends from the Northern Leewards. Earl is no so far unhopefully. Be safe and dry Msbee, Patti and the others from the north, hoping and praying the best for you.

[Gustywind]

[Hugo1989]

In the last hour has been moved just to the west.

[Gustywind]

In the last hour has been moved just to the west.

Sure Hugo? That won't be good news...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/0600 UTC IS NEAR 18.1N
61.8W...OR ABOUT 30 NM/55 KM TO THE NORTH OF BARBUDA...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 969 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 59W AND 64W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND WATERS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 69W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Looks like an eye is trying to form... Earl should maybe continues to organize but not the best moment for that . Once again my friends be aware vigilant as conditions should begin to deteriorate during the next one or two hours...
BE SAFE AND DRY!!!

[Gustywind]

[TwisterFanatic]

Earl continues to intensify tonight... Will probably be a Cat 3 tomorrow afternoon if not earlier.

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST!!!!

[TwisterFanatic]

Just looked at the radar and Earl looks to still be wobbling to the west. Looks to move directly over the radar site. Its gonna be very interesting to see how much longer it keeps this west wobble.

[supercane]

Latest image from St Maarten radar:

Note that the web page apparently only updates the image loop once an hour sometime after the hour.

[Time_Zone]

Intensity up slightly to 105 MPH.

Track has shifted a bit to the west as expected.

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Earl 2:00am postion & wind field. map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[supercane]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300837
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...HURRICANE
WARNING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 62.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ENE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES