ATL: FIONA - Models

[Scorpion]

Very weird, looked like a slam dunk landfall at 168.

[Wx_Warrior]

Trend for EURO has been development....Yesterday had SC, then 2 GOM runs now back to recurve, but all developed Fiona.

[blp]

Well from Cuba and the Gulf to out to sea in 12 hours. Euro not looking to good at the moment from a consistency standpoint. I think the difference is that the models showing 97l catching up with Earl and keeping it close and thus it can exploit the weakness before the high moves in.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's hope so!

[shah8]

For this to verify, it has to move extremely slowly wnw for 2 days after Earl leaves, I think.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS doesn't develop this. It's gone between hours 48 and 54.

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps looks very interessting. The Euro and canadian(both abandoned at this point) had been showing a stall then bend back westward once earl gets out of the way. The 6z nogaps shows exactly this. The models are having difficulties keeping fiona its own entity but if its around and just north of puerto rico as earl is exiting to the north all bets are off....




6z loop:



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[gatorcane]

Euro has shifted east in line with the other models as I expected (despite some folks really not understanding my thinking that the ECMWF was an outlier here ). There are no models that bring it to the United States at this point. Still think the Euro has some more right shifting it will do over the next couple of days but not a whole lot more it needs to do looking at the 00Z run. Great news for the United States with these trends. Need to get that BAMD to recurve as well and I think we got excellent consensus. It's looking fishy for sure, but need a few more days to make sure the trends stick.

[Vortex]

00Z ECM ensembles clustered around South florida Labor Day..Wouldn't be surprised if ecm heads back into gulf on the 12z run.






http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[jlauderdal]

00Z ECM ensembles clustered around South florida Labor Day..Wouldn't be surprised if ecm heads back into gulf on the 12z run.






http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

bastardi thinks the modeling is all wrong at this point, lets see what happens

[Blown Away]

00Z ECM ensembles clustered around South florida Labor Day..Wouldn't be surprised if ecm heads back into gulf on the 12z run.






http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

bastardi thinks the modeling is all wrong at this point, lets see what happens

Not sure what he is seeing because the models are almost unanimous keeing 97L away from the CONUS.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 301300
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1300 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100830 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100830  1200   100831  0000   100831  1200   100901  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  45.2W   14.7N  48.9W   15.8N  52.9W   17.7N  57.0W
BAMD    14.2N  45.2W   14.7N  48.5W   15.5N  51.8W   16.4N  55.2W
BAMM    14.2N  45.2W   14.7N  48.8W   15.5N  52.4W   16.8N  55.9W
LBAR    14.2N  45.2W   14.7N  48.6W   15.2N  52.3W   16.0N  56.1W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100901  1200   100902  1200   100903  1200   100904  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.3N  60.5W   28.4N  64.6W   35.7N  61.3W   41.5N  54.3W
BAMD    17.5N  58.6W   20.0N  65.0W   21.8N  69.6W   21.2N  73.5W
BAMM    18.7N  59.3W   23.3N  64.3W   27.5N  65.3W   28.7N  62.5W
LBAR    17.1N  59.7W   19.7N  65.5W   21.4N  69.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        47KTS          53KTS          55KTS          61KTS
DSHP        47KTS          53KTS          55KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  45.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  14.0N LONM12 =  41.4W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 =  37.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Blown Away]

97L's models have been very confusing. Most of the models recurve as it approaches the NE Caribbean, but the BAMD keeps showing this left hook while the BAMS & BAMM shoot 97L out to sea. Then we have the reliable EURO flopping all over the place?

[AdamFirst]

It's likely flip flopping because the models have zero to work with, in terms of the storm itself.

[southerngale]

00Z ECM ensembles clustered around South florida Labor Day..Wouldn't be surprised if ecm heads back into gulf on the 12z run.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

bastardi thinks the modeling is all wrong at this point, lets see what happens

Not sure what he is seeing because the models are almost unanimous keeing 97L away from the CONUS.

DT from wxrisk.com doesn't think it will recurve either. He said the synoptic pattern favors the SE states or Florida and perhaps into the GOM. He said Fiona could be very bad and he's really worried about it.

http://www.wxrisk.com/?p=1062

[artist]

97L's models have been very confusing. Most of the models recurve as it approaches the NE Caribbean, but the BAMD keeps showing this left hook while the BAMS & BAMM shoot 97L out to sea. Then we have the reliable EURO flopping all over the place?

BAMD is for deep in the tropics as well as the D stands for a if it were a deep (strong) system as well as it is not very good above 20n.

[Blown Away]

DT from wxrisk.com doesn't think it will recurve either. He said the synoptic pattern favors the SE states or Florida and perhaps into the GOM. He said Fiona could be very bad and he's really worried about it.

I keep thinking that but it's hard to overlook the tightly clustered models recurving. I just don't buy 97L following Earl's track just like I didn't think Earl would follow Danielle. I never really questioned the models recurving Earl & Danielle east of the CONUS, but with 97L they don't look right. From the beginning the models have been shooting 97L out to sea and this system keeps plowing west???

[Blown Away]

97L's models have been very confusing. Most of the models recurve as it approaches the NE Caribbean, but the BAMD keeps showing this left hook while the BAMS & BAMM shoot 97L out to sea. Then we have the reliable EURO flopping all over the place?

BAMD is for deep in the tropics as well as the D stands for a if it were a deep (strong) system as well as it is not very good above 20n.

I know, but usually there is not that much of a spread between the BAM's and the BAMD has been doing that left WSW hook run after run??

[southerngale]

They're not as tightly clustered as before.


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[hurr3]

Anyone knows what is JB thinking of 97L?