ATL: EARL - Models

[Time_Zone]

Wow...looks like I could get smacked pretty good.

[superfly]

Looks like Earl will miss EC at this point, but it's gonna be a real close call at Hatteras and Cape Cod.

[Brent]

All the models are west of the NHC track, and several are way west:

[supercane]

GFS runs past 24hr shows slow shift westward:

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Earl - steering flow - 350-850mb (950-969mb). That is a huge, very strong high!

[ravyrn]

What gives with the UKM on the spaghetti map?

[ColinDelia]

What gives with the UKM on the spaghetti map?

That's 97L

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 90 hours

[ColinDelia]

108 hours

[ColinDelia]

114 hours

[kungfut]

anyone think the storm will get held to the west and hit the usvi/bvi/ PR hard???

[Time_Zone]

114 hours

Correct me if im wrong but isn't that showing a Strong2/low end cat 3 hurricane getting ready to Smash Nova Scotia?

The reason I ask is because I can't tell for sure if that's 969 MB's or 989 MB's...I really need to sleep

[xironman]

It looks like 969, that storm is moving very fast, it has gone from the tip of Hatteras and the Gulf Stream to there in 24 hrs so there is not so much time for the cold ocean waters to kill it. There also is probably some sort of baroclinic enhancement.

[Time_Zone]

It looks like 969, that storm is moving very fast, it has gone from the tip of Hatteras and the Gulf Stream to there in 24 hrs so there is not so much time for the cold ocean waters to kill it. There also is probably some sort of baroclinic enhancement.

yea, i'm a bit concerned about Earl as we've never been hit by a Major Hurricane before. Worst storm Nova Scotia has ever gotton was Juan....which was a very small system...Earl on the other hand is quite a large storm.

[ColinDelia]

Correct me if im wrong but isn't that showing a Strong2/low end cat 3 hurricane getting ready to Smash Nova Scotia?

The reason I ask is because I can't tell for sure if that's 969 MB's or 989 MB's...I really need to sleep

Yeah it says 969 mb.

At 33 N, Danielle had estimated maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and central pressure of 972 mb.
Maybe that is a good comparison?

Were those estimated for Danielle or was recon still flying at that point? I haven't been following.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 301226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100830 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100830  1200   100831  0000   100831  1200   100901  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.5N  63.0W   19.9N  65.5W   20.8N  68.1W   21.5N  70.0W
BAMD    18.5N  63.0W   19.4N  64.8W   20.6N  66.5W   22.2N  68.4W
BAMM    18.5N  63.0W   19.8N  65.2W   20.9N  67.2W   22.1N  69.0W
LBAR    18.5N  63.0W   19.7N  65.0W   20.9N  66.9W   22.2N  68.8W
SHIP       100KTS         112KTS         117KTS         119KTS
DSHP       100KTS         112KTS         117KTS         119KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100901  1200   100902  1200   100903  1200   100904  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.4N  71.4W   27.4N  73.0W   34.2N  70.6W   41.2N  58.8W
BAMD    24.1N  70.5W   28.7N  74.3W   34.4N  71.9W   40.9N  59.3W
BAMM    23.6N  70.7W   28.3N  73.5W   34.6N  70.7W   41.5N  58.5W
LBAR    23.9N  70.7W   29.4N  73.5W   36.0N  70.5W     .0N    .0W
SHIP       116KTS         111KTS          99KTS          79KTS
DSHP       116KTS         111KTS          99KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  18.5N LONCUR =  63.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  17.7N LONM12 =  60.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  17.1N LONM24 =  57.7W
WNDCUR =  100KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   80KT
CENPRS =  965MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  140NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 120NM

[HurrMark]

This might be the greatest direct risk to the Northeast since probably Isabel in 2003...we are long overdue...it has been 19 years since Bob. According to the models, it looks at this point like it will stay far enough offshore that there will not be any major impact...maybe TS gusts on the Cape and Nantucket, although that can change in time if the models continue to move westwards. It is still four days away, so there is time to watch it.

[CrazyC83]

This might be the greatest direct risk to the Northeast since probably Isabel in 2003...we are long overdue...it has been 19 years since Bob. According to the models, it looks at this point like it will stay far enough offshore that there will not be any major impact...maybe TS gusts on the Cape and Nantucket, although that can change in time if the models continue to move westwards. It is still four days away, so there is time to watch it.

Isabel didn't really hit New England that much though, although there were tropical storm conditions in the western parts.

[HurrMark]

This might be the greatest direct risk to the Northeast since probably Isabel in 2003...we are long overdue...it has been 19 years since Bob. According to the models, it looks at this point like it will stay far enough offshore that there will not be any major impact...maybe TS gusts on the Cape and Nantucket, although that can change in time if the models continue to move westwards. It is still four days away, so there is time to watch it.

Isabel didn't really hit New England that much though, although there were tropical storm conditions in the western parts.

It didn't, but I remember a point in its life that the storm was expected to make landfall further north...Delaware/NJ on up.

[ROCK]

the GFS ensembles starting to spread out some.....some west some east...I would be watching that trend....