ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[emeraldislencguy]

how close will it come to nc

[Recurve]

The fist is closing. No doubt where the center is. Never seen a more perfect convection growth/wrapping phase.

[EyELeSs1]

latest 0415z:

[StormGuy]

how close will it come to nc

The latest GFS run has it getting real close to NC. But, this is only one run so we'll see. Most models still have it well east of the EC.

[Cyclenall]

I haven't seen a wrapping around like that for a long time. A very potent fist there. RI is likely after it closes just as the GFDL showed (when going through the islands). Something I haven't seen mentioned here yet is a intensifying hurricane seems worse on land than a weakening or steady hurricane does so those on the islands might think a major just rolled through!

[Sanibel]

Wouldn't be surprised to see wobbles from that lopsided east quadrant. The IR has really done a robust burst over the last few frames. Barbuda should see the worst winds on the SE side as Earl passes, but there's an IR burst descending on it from the north any minute now which should bring winds down to the surface with the heavy rain.

[DisasterMagnet]

That's interesting that you said that, cycle. I was on STT for Marilyn in 1995, and it intensified very rapidly. It seemed like a 5, and some reports had winds of over 140mph. Earl looks to be getting gnarly, and I wish I would have called my friends down there today. Best wishes to all of the Leeward folks. It will be a long night/morning.

[Cyclenall]

That's interesting that you said that, cycle. I was on STT for Marilyn in 1995, and it intensified very rapidly. It seemed like a 5, and some reports had winds of over 140mph. Earl looks to be getting gnarly, and I wish I would have called my friends down there today. Best wishes to all of the Leeward folks. It will be a long night/morning.

That's the hurricane that is similar to this one in that respect.

[supercane]

Latest St. Maarten radar image:

[weatherSnoop]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

looks like Barbuda is about to be gobbled up

[Gustywind]

[JTD]

DISCLAIMER; The below post is not an official forecast and should not be taken as such. It is an INCREDIBLY amateur opinion only and is based only on years of following the tropics. Agaiin, REFER TO OFFICAL SOURCES FOR ALL OF YOUR CRITICAL LIFE NEEDS.

The 0Z GFS run, if it verifies, has tremendously omninous implications. We are talking here about a storm that crashes into Cape Cod after scrapig the entire coast from NC northwards through LI up to the Cape. Bob 1991 was very similar to this but Earl has the possiblity of being way stronger. Not to mntion the storm surge and size.

If future GFS runs show ANYTHING like this, EOCs everywhere in SNE need to kick into high gear IMO.

That run, especially with the GGEM supporting it, is cause for GREAT ALARM. It is a doomsday scenario.

The ingestion of the recon data and synoptic information may have helped the models reach this conclusion as well.

Interesting and frightening days ahead I fear.

The trend of the models further west all evening before this adds more fuel to the fire.

Why am I concerned. This is why.

Say that LI is affected by a strong cane. Check this out-

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38h ... future.htm

Table 32 shows that the total cost of a category 3 hurricane to residential and commercial properties ranges between $11 and $14 billion while the damage to these structures in a category 4 storm would be $68 to $73 billion.

And this from the AP a while back about such a moment-
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,523382,00.html

When experts sketch out nightmare hurricane scenarios, a New York strike tends to be high on the list.

Besides shaking skyscrapers, a major hurricane could send the Atlantic Ocean surging into the nation's largest city, flooding Wall Street, subways and densely packed neighborhoods.

As a new hurricane season starts Monday, some scientists and engineers are floating an ambitious solution: Barriers to choke off the surging sea and protect flood-prone areas.

The plan involves deploying giant barriers and gates that would move into place — in some cases rising out of the water — for storms. One proposal calls for a 5-mile-long barrier between New Jersey and Queens

.

[Hurrilurker]

Pressure down to 969. No RI just yet but still falling.

[HurricaneQueen]

That's interesting that you said that, cycle. I was on STT for Marilyn in 1995, and it intensified very rapidly. It seemed like a 5, and some reports had winds of over 140mph. Earl looks to be getting gnarly, and I wish I would have called my friends down there today. Best wishes to all of the Leeward folks. It will be a long night/morning.

I was in SXM for Luis (about 10-14 days before Marilyn). Unfortunately, we didn't have the resources to watch the full development of Luis except for an occasional opportunity to view The Weather Channel where it looked as if it filled up nearly all of the Atlantic.

I know what the people on the islands are experiencing especially with a hurricane bearing down during the nighttime hours. It is truly terrifying-worse when you are on foreign soil and/or on an island in the middle of the ocean with all forms of communications cut off for over a week.

The big differences are a Cat 4 vs a Cat 2 and the fact that Earl is moving nearly 4 times faster than Luis. Due to its huge size and slow movement, it felt as if it went on forever. If not for health reasons, we would be in SXM right now.

Wishing all the best to everyone in the Caribbean. You are all in my thoughts and prayers.

Lynn

[Gustywind]

That's interesting that you said that, cycle. I was on STT for Marilyn in 1995, and it intensified very rapidly. It seemed like a 5, and some reports had winds of over 140mph. Earl looks to be getting gnarly, and I wish I would have called my friends down there today. Best wishes to all of the Leeward folks. It will be a long night/morning.

I was in SXM for Luis (about 10-14 days before Marilyn). Unfortunately, we didn't have the resources to watch the full development of Luis except for an occasional opportunity to view The Weather Channel where it looked as if it filled up nearly all of the Atlantic.

I know what the people on the islands are experiencing especially with a hurricane bearing down during the nighttime hours. It is truly terrifying-worse when you are on foreign soil and/or on an island in the middle of the ocean with all forms of communications cut off for over a week.

The big differences are a Cat 4 vs a Cat 2 and the fact that Earl is moving nearly 4 times faster than Luis. Due to its huge size and slow movement, it felt as if it went on forever. If not for health reasons, we would be in SXM right now.

Wishing all the best to everyone in the Caribbean. You are all in my thoughts and prayers.

Lynn

Thanks Lynn let's hope the very best for them, Earl continues to pose a real threat now

[Gustywind]

TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...CENTER OF EARL PASSING NORTH OF BARBUDA...RAINBANDS APPROACHING
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 61.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[supercane]

Recon slows steady deepening, steady WNW motion:

[WeatherGuesser]

That run, especially with the GGEM supporting it, is cause for GREAT ALARM. It is a doomsday scenario.

Got plenty of time for panic mode.

[Gustywind]

[Hurrilurker]

With the convection firing and wrapping, the contracting eyewall, and lessening northern shear, I expect a significant pressure drop from the next plane, I wouldn't be surprised to see 964 or so. Satellite must be in blackout, I haven't been able to get an updated image for an hour or so.