ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I live on Cape Cod and I'm within the projected path...should I be worried about a hurricane?

It's just way too early. Just keep watching. Over the next couple of days that forecast path (and the cone) will shift west and east a number of times before it locks in. Usually by the time it's two days away from a location the NHC gets a really good lock on the track. So for you, it won't be certain until around Tuesday.

[sfwx]

Shouldn't there be a page just for the weather conditions in the islands from Earl? That may help those who really need to know what is happening there!!

there is

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109178

Thanks! Found it right after I posted.

Eric

[BigB0882]

We need a few more frames but could it even be slightly south of west in the wobble? This could really affect the long range forecast depending how long this goes on.

[TheBurn]

[Category 5]

Even just outside the cone, I've got a close watch on this myself, might be beach trip time when it passes for those swells (pictures not swimming).

[Gustywind]

True WNW is 292.5 degrees....so, Earl is moving just south of WNW...hurricane continues to look impressive on the satellite. All of you in the islands stay safe and God be with you......MGC

Thanks my friend We continue hope that Earl could spare the islands.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Well guys the wobbles are going to play a big part in the out come of the long range forcast. If you figure that the wobbles for say could be the deciding factor of the the amount of miles to the left or to the right . The nhc alrdy has a cone that could be 250 miles off by the end of the track .So the wobbles will be a deciding factor overall of provabale land fall . IMO

i agree with this and the track could very well shift to the west!!!!!!!!

[bvigal]

I have many sources to see what's happening with satellite, radar, advisories, etc. What I come here for (in between finishing up final tasks here) is this information sythesized by those not in the path, who've had time to pay attention to it all day. (And not to listen to arguments on wobble theory .

To me, Earl hasn't done anything unexpected in the last 24hrs. Exact track down to 10-20 miles will always vary, but is basically stayed the same now (through NE Caribbean) for 4 major advisories, I've been plotting them. Barbuda is part of the nation of Antigua. If the north shore might get hurricane conditons, Antigua and Barbuda will be under a hurricane warning. Same for BVI - Anegada is way out there, but it's part of our country, so we are under a warning. A "wobble" or unforecasted slight change in track at the last minute could bring conditions which require the warnings. That's how it works.

These islands are small. It would be like saying a Cat2-3 hurricane is going to hit within a 50-mile section of coastline in the Gulf, and including only 60-mile wide section of coastline in the warnings. When have EVER seen that happen?

[Gustywind]

Earl very close from Barbuda...

[bvigal]

p.s. Thanks sfwx and MGC for your well wishes!

[EyELeSs1]

GOES 15 rapid scan. Blow up of storms on south side wrapping around to the NE now

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/g15_srso_ir&width=600&height=600

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Its exploding right now!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

The San Juan long range radar is already showing the first bands.

[TheShrimper]

Don't tell me about the insignificance of wobbles......like the supposed 8 hr. wobble that took Charley right overhead instead of up 75 about 120 miles.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm.. maybe its moving straight north.... j/k ... not much north component in the last hour..

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

[Evil Jeremy]

Don't tell me about the insignificance of wobbles......like the supposed 8 hr. wobble that took Charley right overhead instead of up 75 about 120 miles.

8 hours isn't a wobble, that's consistent movement.

[gatorcane]

My thoughts and prayers go out to those in the islands impacted by Earl...

[ozonepete]

Some really big thunderstorms heading your way in the northernmost islands. Be safe!

[HurricaneBelle]

Don't tell me about the insignificance of wobbles......like the supposed 8 hr. wobble that took Charley right overhead instead of up 75 about 120 miles.

Charley didn't wobble - he recurved sooner than forecasted.

[terrapintransit]

hmmm.. maybe its moving straight north.... j/k ... not much north component in the last hour..

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

Almost appears to have wobbled slightly south west in that loop imo