ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[bvigal]

Just got a message on my phone from our Department of Disaster Management that Earl is a Category 3!

"The Department of Disaster Management wishes to inform the public that the BVI is now under a HURRICANE WARNING. Earl has been upgraded to CAT 3. Pls take all necessary safety precautions!"

[Aric Dunn]

AF recon found a 88 un flagged wind ...

[jinftl]

8pm advisory is out....winds still sustained at 85 mph....still a cat 1

Just got a message on my phone from our Department of Disaster Management that Earl is a Category 3!

[Aric Dunn]

Since he is gaining a bit of latitude with each advisory, I agree with you. Behaving as forecast....no sharp nw turn was forecast for the next 36 hours or so...rather, a slow, 2-steps-forward-1-wobble-back west to wnw motion is taking shape.

Wobble Watch 2010 is in full effect - when you have a thread confirming a wnw motion followed by a thread stating that the motion is due west...we are in wobble watch mode! The storm coming into radar range will help clarify that....

It's pretty evident that Earl is beginning to stair step around the SW edge of the ridge.

your missing the difference in this case.. when out in the middle of the ocean wobble watching is pointless.. but right now very important..

[CrazyC83]

I would have gone up to 80 kt with the latest AF data (FL winds support 85 kt but SFMR is lower).

[bvigal]

8pm advisory is out....winds still sustained at 85 mph....still a cat 1

Just got a message on my phone from our Department of Disaster Management that Earl is a Category 3!

I didn't believe it anyway, I just laughed!

[Migle]

8pm advisory is out....winds still sustained at 85 mph....still a cat 1

Just got a message on my phone from our Department of Disaster Management that Earl is a Category 3!

I didn't believe it anyway, I just laughed!

yeah, I guess they got the wrong information.

[BigA]

Big storms developing just to the south of Earl's center. Stay safe in the northern islands! Praying for you.

[tailgater]

It may get to that by the time it reachs the BVI.
Sorry not trying to scare anyone but it is possible.

[bvigal]

It may get to that by the time it reachs the BVI

Yes, it is forecast to be a Cat3 before reaching here (since 11am adv), well, north of here, but not by much.

[jinftl]

Exactly, and the slight motion north of due west (say 275-285 deg) has allowed the storm to gain a full degree (1.0 deg) of latitude in the last 18 hours:

At 2am sunday, the latitude was 16.7N
At 8pm sunday, the latitude is 17.7N

How significant has this just north-of-west motion been? The center of the storm was south in latitude of every island in the hurricane warning earlier this morning. Now, the center is north of every main island in the hurricane warning except for the following:

St Martin (18.05N)
Tortola (18.45N)
Anguilla (18.2N)

The eye is now north of the latitude of the following:

Antigua (17.12N)
Barbuda (17.63N) - it will be close enough to be in the eye wall
Montserrat (16.74N)
St. Kitts (17.3N)
Nevis (17.14N)
Saba (17.63N)
St. Eusatius (17.48N)


The significance of that is experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds vs. being in the eyepath or on the stronger north side (in terms of wind radii) of a strengthening hurricane. Huge implication in terms of damage potential As of 5pm, the wind radii of hurricane force winds shows that being north of the eye is where the worst winds will be, and where those damaging winds extend further north:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

Since he is gaining a bit of latitude with each advisory, I agree with you. Behaving as forecast....no sharp nw turn was forecast for the next 36 hours or so...rather, a slow, 2-steps-forward-1-wobble-back west to wnw motion is taking shape.

Wobble Watch 2010 is in full effect - when you have a thread confirming a wnw motion followed by a thread stating that the motion is due west...we are in wobble watch mode! The storm coming into radar range will help clarify that....

It's pretty evident that Earl is beginning to stair step around the SW edge of the ridge.

your missing the difference in this case.. when out in the middle of the ocean wobble watching is pointless.. but right now very important..

[CrazyC83]

They could probably safely drop Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis and Antigua from the Hurricane Warning with those measurements.

[Aric Dunn]

So are you trying to downplay a possibly cat three hurricane southern quadrant... barbuda will likely get raked by the southern eyewall.

[ozonepete]

Although Earl looks quite healthy, it still has one factor that's keeping it from intensifying more quickly - the outflow from Danielle is choking off Earl's outflow in the NE quadrant. But that will abate overnight and then watch out. This should really explode once it has a nice anticyclone over it with good outflow in all quadrants.

[BigA]

Hard to tell, but Earl looks to have just taken a wobble west, probably due to the strong bursing convection south of the eye. Could anyone post the lesser Antilles radar loop?

[BatzVI]

PR long range radar starting to show rainbands

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Nimbus]

Well since 5PM Codrington Barbuda upped their maximum wind estimate to hurricane force winds increasing to 60 to 80 mph. We should see at least a gust to Hurricane strength which will put an end to the debate of whether the islands get hurricane force winds.

[Gustywind]

[TampaFl]

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm postion & wind field. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

[P.R.Cane]

i live in the northwestern side of PR and it has been a weird day...it feels just like the day before tropical storm Jeanne in 2004...even my dogs have been behaving kind of weird and after talking to a few people from around the island they confirm that the same thing has happened to their dogs...freaky....