ATL: FIONA - Models

[Weatherfreak000]

In these situations, I will tend to ignore the west bias EURO (as usual), remain skeptical but weary of the strange new GFS, and lean on the CMC which is the best long range model.


Chances of that high affecting 97L are increasing. The storm has bust early model projections shooting it quickly to the North because it has stayed shallow. This may last for another 24 hours based on the satellite imagery im seeing. It has also been moving almost due west...of course mostly WNW which is typical, but I suspect it would be moving alot more north if it had gotten deeper, and as I said before that was what early models were seeing.

Currently i'm favoring a trend bringing Earl close to the EC but recurving, Fiona stays weak for a day or so, potentially affecting the Islands with potential landfalls in the Caribbean, as well as the East Coast. Again it's always best to ignore the most west or right bias models, and to go with the consensus.

I remember HWRF and it's west solution. In a La Nina pattern i'm gonna need some hard evidence to want to shove anything under or into Florida. Don't get me wrong I think Florida is at risk this season, the west coast during October highest chance. I do not necessarily think The Gulf Coast's season is over, La Nina's have had later season landfalls in just about every part of the Gulf. Most of these formations occurred when the system formed in the Caribbean. After the phenomena that led to Ike's movement however, i'll have one eye open to the GOM.


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[Steve]

fred,

On the surface pressure runs, ECMWF has the system farthest east at 72 hours (GEM at the islands, GFS approaching and EC a little farther back). EC looks strongest (could have to do with resolution) and slowest at that point.

At 96 hours, CMC is just off the eastern tip of the DR. GFS is a hair east of there and weaker. Euro is farther back and still slightly east of Puerto Rico - and a little stronger than GFS or CMC.

At 120 hours 12z (Friday am) CMC is just SE of the Bahamas close to where the GFS is but stronger. EC is a hair to their southeast. They're all fairly close at this point with the EC being slightly slower and stronger.

At 144 (which would be Saturday) CMC has it lifting north near but west of GFS. Euro is stronger and comes through southern Bahamas heading toward Cuba.

After that, Euro feels the new ridge and moves toward Morgan City, CMC (in the 00z run which goes out far enough) catches it off the SE Coast and heads for NC/SC, and the GFS recurves in behind Earl with a trough sweeping down ahead of the high. We've got 3 pretty different scenarios here but they're mostly similar out through 5 days. Euro is slowest now but farthest west in the long run.

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps heads NW into the weakness left by earl but then gets left behind and stalls at the end..With the upcoming pattern one would surmise that fiona would begin a westard track...CMC indicates it, we already know what the euro thinks and now nogaps hinting at it...




https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Wx_Warrior]

With nogaps hinting, the EURO could be totally wrong now...LOL j/k

[Steve H.]

That's odd. cause I just looked at the 18Z NOGAPS and the 18 Z GFS and neither have 97L developing into anything. I don't buy it. Upwelling doesn't cause cyclones from developing.

[Steve]

18z GFS weaker and faster. I'd ignore it and wait for the 00z.

[Steve H.]

OK, I didn't refresh the NOGAPS or something. But the idea with the NOGAPs and the GFS is the same....and it's non-sense. The Euro and maybe the Canadian have a better grasp.

[Wx_Warrior]

nogaps isn't very good IMO...gfs is struggling.

[BigB0882]

I don't see this not developing into at least a TS, especially if this gets further West than Earl got. Then the upwelling wouldn't be an issue and by then Earl should be far enough away to not create shear. I am thinking it is having problems forming for now because of a combination of upwelling and getting closer and closer to Earl. Eventually both of those should be non issues, well...maybe...

[M_0331]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

For those that don't have most of the discussed models, this link may take you to a search page & click on 'Allan Huffman's Current Model & Data page' or straight to the link.

[WeatherEmperor]

The latest 18Z GFDL continues to turn 97L away from the US coast. In fact, it shows a Bermuda threat. Very interesting how the GFDL is sticking to it's guns. Let's see if the 00Z Euro tonight continues to stick to it's guns, or if it joins the GFS and GFDL.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_97.gif

[Vortex]

12Z CMC ensemble has fiona near SE FL in 7 days....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... p12168.gif

[Vortex]

Her's a better look


12Z CMC Ensemble 7 days out



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... TNA168.gif

[SeminoleWind]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

For those that don't have most of the discussed models, this link may take you to a search page & click on 'Allan Huffman's Current Model & Data page' or straight to the link.

thanks for that i was looking and looking but could never find that site
according to that ecmwf central Florida is in deep doo doo

[Ivanhater]

I'm not even looking at the GFS or its counterparts (GFDL and HWRF) until it actually sees 97L as its own entity and not the tail of Earl.

Euro will not trend anywhere close to the GFS IMO. Euro and Canadian (and both their ensemble members) have been consistent on a SE U.S hit.

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm not even looking at the GFS or its counterparts (GFDL and HWRF) until it actually sees 97L as its own entity and not the tail of Earl.

Euro will not trend anywhere close to the GFS IMO. Euro and Canadian (and both their ensemble members) have been consistent on a SE U.S hit.

Haha I understand. So do you think that the Euro/CMC solutions are more likely to verify? I actually would favor the Euro/CMC solutions more so if it weren't for the Ukmet and Nogaps.....yes I said Nogaps even though I have been told it is not very good. The thing is, both of those 2 are not based on the GFS and they kinda agree with the GFS. I want to see what the Ukmet does at 00Z. Also, I want to see what the non GFS global models do. What do you think?

[M_0331]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

For those that don't have most of the discussed models, this link may take you to a search page & click on 'Allan Huffman's Current Model & Data page' or straight to the link.

thanks for that i was looking and looking but could never find that site
according to that ecmwf central Florida is in deep doo doo

Yea, I did not want to post that picture.

[Vortex]

Here's the 12Z ECM Ensemble 7 days out
CMC/Euro very similar.


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP216.gif

[Steve]

>>12Z CMC Ensemble 7 days out

This is more in line with the ECMWF. CMC Ensembles are much farther south than where the 00Z GEM ended up and SW of where it is progged to be on that date on the 12Z Operational. Canadian Ensembles show a greater threat to FL where the 12z Operational was NE of the islands and lifting up before presumably heading WNW toward South Carolina.

[SootyTern]

If I'm reading that 12z CMC map right it's near South Florida but only 1007 mb. Is this much of a spread in intensity normal between different models? I do know intensity is the hardest thing to forecast, but..