ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[jinftl]

Still a good distance from Puerto Rico:

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The eye of the storm is about 432 miles (695 km) away at 5pm location of Earl (17.6N 59.5W)

Forecast Closest Approach to San Juan data:

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.0N, 64.7W or about 135.7 miles (218.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 33.3 hours (Tuesday, August 31 at 2:18AM AST).
http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

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[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

its looking like movement is about 280..

http://www.weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

[chris_fit]

Not sure if this has been posted, video from earlier today...Antigua

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g41T-XFZcx8

[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

barbuda seems like it might take a SW and Southern eyewall.

[Evil Jeremy]

barbuda seems like it might take a SW and Southern eyewall.

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/474/14261230.gif

Looks like its headed WNW again.

[TheBurn]

My eyes must be fooling me...
I see what appears like a clear shift to a WNW-NW track in the last few frames of this loop:

LOOP

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[Aric Dunn]

barbuda seems like it might take a SW and Southern eyewall.

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/474/14261230.gif

Looks like its headed WNW again.

I thought the same till I noticed the convection wrapping around the backside.. had to look at for awhile.. that and recon last pass was still basically west.. three passes mostly west

[hurricanefloyd5]

barbuda seems like it might take a SW and Southern eyewall.

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/474/14261230.gif

Looks like its headed WNW again.

I thought the same till I noticed the convection wrapping around the backside.. had to look at for awhile.. that and recon last pass was still basically west.. three passes mostly west

this moving farther west again just a bit??????

[shah8]

I'm mostly interested in the strength of recurve motion. I was looking through the maps going back the last twenty years, and there really aren't many hurricanes that are as strong as Earl is supposed to get and will recurve as sharp as has been suggested.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the next image.. the eye is contracting... and convection wrapping around gave that wobble but still seems about 275 or 280..

[Weatherfreak000]

Have to say it is indeed moving mostly west. Not so sure it's a wobble.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure indeed seems to be down to 969mb given the AF flight.

[Aric Dunn]

latest pass... 17.4 N
233730 1740N 06020W 6963 02887 9685 +148 +099 326007 011 027 001 00

compared the first pass of 17.36

over the last couple hours ..motion is west again..

[Dean4Storms]

It's pretty evident that Earl is beginning to stair step around the SW edge of the ridge.

[Normandy]

Aric make sure you save a loop showing the entire passage. Its rare you see developing hurricanes within radar range. We could have a steady stream of radar from here until North of PR.

[Aric Dunn]

It's pretty evident that Earl is beginning to stair step around the SW edge of the ridge.

yeah but normally its not that big of a deal.. but if it wobbles west for any lengthy period of time it puts more of the islands in hurricane force winds..

[Aric Dunn]

Aric make sure you save a loop showing the entire passage. Its rare you see developing hurricanes within radar range. We could have a steady stream of radar from here until North of PR.

yep im doing it..

[jinftl]

Since he is gaining a bit of latitude with each advisory, I agree with you. Behaving as forecast....no sharp nw turn was forecast for the next 36 hours or so...rather, a slow, 2-steps-forward-1-wobble-back west to wnw motion is taking shape.

Wobble Watch 2010 is in full effect - when you have a thread confirming a wnw motion followed by a thread stating that the motion is due west...we are in wobble watch mode! The storm coming into radar range will help clarify that....

It's pretty evident that Earl is beginning to stair step around the SW edge of the ridge.