ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Maybe, the cooler waters left behind by Earl is not allowing 97L to go ahead and develop,but is only my opinion.

[jaxfladude]

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/4KMIRIMG/2010AL97_4KMIRIMG_201008292015.GIF[img]

Lets see what D-MAX can do.

Looks a little bit like

LOL! You are right, I see it!

An omen???
Man, and to think just earlier this month(Aug. 2010) some thought this season was dead or other-wise boring.

[conn96]

Hey, Im just wondering what you guys think about Invest 97. Where do you think it'll go? Unlike Danielle and Earl, I don't think this will be a fish storm. Within the next 48 hours I believe it will be upgraded to a tropical depression, and then a tropical storm. Eventually becoming a hurricane. I predict this storm with drift towards central or northern Florida. What do you think this storm will do? Where do you believe it will go and how strong do you prdict it getting? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

conn96, post any questions you may have about invest 97L in this thread.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ON HURRICANE EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF BARBUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[expat2carib]

Hey, Im just wondering what you guys think about Invest 97. Where do you think it'll go? Unlike Danielle and Earl, I don't think this will be a fish storm. Within the next 48 hours I believe it will be upgraded to a tropical depression, and then a tropical storm. Eventually becoming a hurricane. I predict this storm with drift towards central or northern Florida. What do you think this storm will do? Where do you believe it will go and how strong do you prdict it getting? Thanks.

Earl a fish? It's punching us on the nose on the islands right now.

[Blown Away]

The convection remains shallow but 97L has a big circulation and once it pulls together I see no reason why this won't become a big storm.

[LaBreeze]

So what are the possibilities of 97L "Fiona" getting into the GOM? Thoughts, ideas??

[WeatherEmperor]

So if 97L stays weak, would that mean more West in the short term?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010083000, , BEST, 0, 140N, 414W, 25, 1007, LO

[StormClouds63]

So what are the possibilities of 97L "Fiona" getting into the GOM? Thoughts, ideas??

Just my opinion, but I think we're in pretty good shape on 97L being an Atlantic system ... chances would seem quite low for western GOM.

Now, the next name on the list is a good Cajun name ... "Gaston." Let's hope he can bring us some much needed rain in about 10 days ... and nothing more. I'm thinking of the version of Dean in 1995 ... a rainmaker and very well-behaved minimal TS.

[Vortex]

this system has a very large envelope...Excellent outflow as well...Could be quite a large storm...

[Buck]

This system pretty much has all the resources it needs to become a monster... it just needs some convection and for that convection to persist long enough. It's being vented very well.

[dexterlabio]

Do any other models support the ones made by ECMWF regarding this system? Euro model gets more terrifying by the day, and it makes me wonder about their reasoning behind this...

[LaBreeze]

Do any other models support the ones made by ECMWF regarding this system? Euro model gets more terrifying by the day, and it makes me wonder about their reasoning behind this...

"terrifying" - how so? I'm out of the loop on models sometimes.

[SFLcane]

[LaBreeze]

So what are the possibilities of 97L "Fiona" getting into the GOM? Thoughts, ideas??

Just my opinion, but I think we're in pretty good shape on 97L being an Atlantic system ... chances would seem quite low for western GOM.

Now, the next name on the list is a good Cajun name ... "Gaston." Let's hope he can bring us some much needed rain in about 10 days ... and nothing more. I'm thinking of the version of Dean in 1995 ... a rainmaker and very well-behaved minimal TS.

I'm with you on the idea that 97L stays an Atlantic system. At least, I'm hoping that's the case. Seems like they're all curving out to be fish - let's keep the pattern.

[dexterlabio]

Do any other models support the ones made by ECMWF regarding this system? Euro model gets more terrifying by the day, and it makes me wonder about their reasoning behind this...

"terrifying" - how so? I'm out of the loop on models sometimes.

uhmm, aren't they the ones showing this soon-to-be Fiona hitting the SE coast? I've also seen the previous runs and they keep on showing this kind of track.

[dwsqos2]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Really, this is a broad mess. Interestingly enough, the gfs seems to prog a broad, poorly organized mess. I anticipate little to no development for the next 48 hours.

[supercane]

Once again ASCAT fails to show a convincing well-organized LLCC:

Latest microwave: