ATL: FIONA - Models

[wxman57]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

[Dean4Storms]

The ECM has a history this year with a wild west run, it had one or two with Alex, Danielle and Earl so I pretty much expected one at least like this with Fiona. I think the ECM comes back eastward from here and believe the true cone of vulnerability with Fiona lies between Florida to NC with a cross over of Florida into the Gulf not out of the question, but hitting Cuba is crazy IMO.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just for entertaining the Euro idea, IF IT COMES TRUE. This could not happen at a worse time. Labor day weekend along the gulf and a HUGE game on the 9th in the DOME between the Saints and Vikings.

[Steve]

>>While for now, 97L appears to be more of an east coast issue, the Euro clearly shows what stronger ridging could do to this storm, and is a possibility to be very strongly aware of.

Agreed true. And if not this one, mid-month period could be dicey for just that pattern.
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Seeing some of these Gulf model solutions on Katrina+5 Day is almost comical. Then again, it's rained for almost 2 days straight. lol. But it's a good reminder that I need to hit the store kind of early this week to re-stock up on water and non-perishable supplies and probably grab some gas later this week.

[artist]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

I guess you need to enjoy all the time off you can for the next day or so, huh, wxman57?
Thanks so much for taking time out to post.
Do you think Fl could end up in the crosshairs or just way to early to tell?

[thetruesms]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

I'm thinking similarly - I'm not running out and buying what the Euro's selling, but I am listening to its sales pitch.

From pretty early on, I was thinking this had the potential to at least cause concern for the US mainland, but with so much ahead of it, knew it wouldn't take much to throw a big wrench in the whole works . . . and really, not a whole lot has changed in that regard. Danielle may be booking out, but there's still the matter of Earl, and 97L itself still needs to establish itself as a TC before anything else. I've got an idea of what I think will happen, but everything I've done in the past week has made sure to mention that there's still several possibilities to be open to.

[perk]

The ECM has a history this year with a wild west run, it had one or two with Alex, Danielle and Earl so I pretty much expected one at least like this with Fiona. I think the ECM comes back eastward from here and believe the true cone of vulnerability with Fiona lies between Florida to NC with a cross over of Florida into the Gulf not out of the question, but hitting Cuba is crazy IMO.

Ike buried itself over Cuba for more than a day, and we all see where it ended up.

[Blown Away]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

I'm thinking similarly - I'm not running out and buying what the Euro's selling, but I am listening to its sales pitch.

From pretty early on, I was thinking this had the potential to at least cause concern for the US mainland, but with so much ahead of it, knew it wouldn't take much to throw a big wrench in the whole works . . . and really, not a whole lot has changed in that regard. Danielle may be booking out, but there's still the matter of Earl, and 97L itself still needs to establish itself as a TC before anything else. I've got an idea of what I think will happen, but everything I've done in the past week has made sure to mention that there's still several possibilities to be open to.

Gonna leave us in suspense??

[ROCK]

the GOM has gone nuclear..... any thing making landfall in here is in a world of hurt...of course all thing being equal....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Lets not forget though ROCK, there have been numerous opportunitys for something to get going in the gulf this year and everything has fallen apart SO FAR, besides Alex. Not to say it will again but it is definately something to keep in the back of our minds.

agree..thats why I said all things being equal.....very rarely if not ever does a TC reach its MHP....just saying that as of right now the GOM has some serious fuel in it....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Fair enough

[ROCK]

The ECM has a history this year with a wild west run, it had one or two with Alex, Danielle and Earl so I pretty much expected one at least like this with Fiona. I think the ECM comes back eastward from here and believe the true cone of vulnerability with Fiona lies between Florida to NC with a cross over of Florida into the Gulf not out of the question, but hitting Cuba is crazy IMO.

ECM sniffed out IKE way before any other models lest not forget.....it is always the rogue model and that is why I like it so much I guess....

[redheadcloud]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

"May be an increasing risk?" There is a definite and increasing risk. There are models putting this thing in the GOM for crying out loud.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

"May be an increasing risk?" There is a definite and increasing risk. There are models putting this thing in the GOM for crying out loud.

He's not making a forecast, just his gut feeling. I am sure he is well aware of an increasing risk to the U.S.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

"May be an increasing risk?" There is a definite and increasing risk. There are models putting this thing in the GOM for crying out loud.

An increasing, I can give you that. But nowhere near a definite risk. I dont know where you reside but i live 60 miles west of New Orleans right in the target zone and no I am not worried one bit. Chance of this actualy happening 10 days out are about 1%. Hell most times 72 hours out are not exact. Now in 5 days if models are still showing this i will have a completely different tune.

[artist]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

I'm thinking similarly - I'm not running out and buying what the Euro's selling, but I am listening to its sales pitch.

From pretty early on, I was thinking this had the potential to at least cause concern for the US mainland, but with so much ahead of it, knew it wouldn't take much to throw a big wrench in the whole works . . . and really, not a whole lot has changed in that regard. Danielle may be booking out, but there's still the matter of Earl, and 97L itself still needs to establish itself as a TC before anything else. I've got an idea of what I think will happen, but everything I've done in the past week has made sure to mention that there's still several possibilities to be open to.

so, what are those possibilites? at least in your opinion.

[ROCK]

if the ECM is showing a solution at 144hr of a GOM threat then I would be worried...

[artist]

Interesting Euro track, that's for sure. My gut says the Euro won't verify. It's not an impossible track, but I think it's unlikely. There may be an increasing risk of an impact along the East U.S. Coast, though.

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. So much for the quiet season...

"May be an increasing risk?" There is a definite and increasing risk. There are models putting this thing in the GOM for crying out loud.

they are early model runs at this point. We don't even have a storm at this point. Many things can change between now and then. I know you are new and may not realize this, but the mets and other pros here do this as a service to us all here and we need to apprecaite that fact. This far out, noone knows for certain where it will go. Until an actual storm forms, then things can slowly come together. I know it can be an anxious time, as I sit in south Florida, but remember it is still a long ways off and let's be kind.

[thetruesms]

Gonna leave us in suspense??

so, what are those possibilites? at least in your opinion.

Honestly, my initial gut would be that Early would be more safely between Bermuda and the EC (well, as safely as you can get in there), with 97L as Fiona become a very real concern for the Carolinas, particularly OBX.

Now, with Earl trending towards the west, it more takes the place of 97L in my gut scenario. What will be important is how quickly 97L decides to get its act together, how quickly Earl gets out of there, and what the ridge decides to do in Earl's wake. For the moment, I think That Earl will stay far enough off the EC that it won't be a huge concern, and at a speed that will be enough to induce 97L/Fiona to follow a similar path up and out. For the islands, it may almost look like a replay of Earl, though this time may be close enough to feel more direct effects. As the ridge builds in, it could rake along the coast or perhaps even make landfall in the Carolinas.

Now, there's a lot that can mess that up royally, and I'm not particularly confident in that. If Earl's slow or 97L is fast, it could go up and out more quickly, with little or no concern for many. On the flip side, the ridge could build in enough to force 97L west and become a Florida/Gulf/Cuba(????) issue. 97L's development will be key, too. We can see now that the low level flow would force a weaker system farther west like Earl has done somewhat, but quicker development shows a bigger window to play with.

[fci]

Yeah, you're right about the Euro and GFS being different. But how many times has the Euro had to "catch up" to the GFS solution? I can't remember any. Not one time. I remember dozens of times where the GFS finally catches on about 2 days after the Euro sniffs something out correctly.

If you look back at the NHC verification reports, the GFS and the Euro have more or less split the past 4 years.

Where the perceived "huge" superiority comes from is a bit of confirmation bias. GFS tends to favor a more progressive pattern, frequently breaking down strong ridges, generally leading to more storms out to sea. Nobody pays attention to/remembers these storms. ECMWF tends to favor stronger ridges, taking storms further west. When it does better, it tends to affect more people, making the storms more memorable. Since people are more likely to remember storms in which the ECMWF outperformed the GFS, it gets an inflated reputation. In reality, the two have performed much more comparably.

Since the recent changes to the GFS, though, there has been a more significant gap between the two, with the ECMWF doing somewhat better. It seems like the GFS still makes plausible scenarios, and then goes and does something funky with them (i.e. its stubborn insistence on a lead CV storm's stalling out in order to devour the trailing storm; and yet, it still seems to be verifying better than NOGAPS ). This is where things get complicated, though, as for now the GFS seems to be more with the group than the more reliable Euro, which is behaving more like an outlier at the moment - though both are on the left side of the guidance envelope.

While for now, 97L appears to be more of an east coast issue, the Euro clearly shows what stronger ridging could do to this storm, and is a possibility to be very strongly aware of. In the short term, we need to be looking at how 97L's development proceeds, Earl's strength/speed/track, and the mid-latitude wavetrain evolution to see how things will develop.

To paraphrase this into "non Pro Met" language:
We have no clue this early, given the unknown development of 97L and the inconsistecy and biases of the models to know where 97L is going.
Your guess is as good as mine.
Check back in 3-5 days.

[Nimbus]

WXman57 would need to notify his oil industry clients at 7 days out so they would have time to shut if it was going to be a gulf storm. There are oil rigs off the southeast coast as well. I'm still waiting to see where Earl goes, if he stalls further south than Danielle did then he blocks 97L simple.