ATL: FIONA - Models

[Scorpion]

Yea this should be the strongest run yet

[Ivanhater]

144 hours

[Scorpion]

UKMET is also strongly in line with this

[PTrackerLA]

That is much further south, quite a remarkable disagreement between the Euro and GFS here.

[Vortex]

look at that ridging to the north..may head right across cuba...

[Vortex]

scorpion, do you have the 12z ukmet?

[Ivanhater]

162 hours..landfall Cuba

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET is also strongly in line with this

I don't think so. Look at this model graphic to find the today's latest 12Z UKMET run. It still shows a NW turn away from the US.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_97.gif

[I-wall]

120 hours..much further south than last night

IvanHater, why do you think the euro keeps 97L so weak, even at 120 hours? Outflow from Earl? The southward trend seems concerning, but the intensity forecast seems to be the silver lining.

[GeneratorPower]

Man, the Euro is hard to beat at these ranges. How many times have we seen the Euro bulldoze other models.

[Ikester]

120 hours..much further south than last night

IvanHater, why do you think the euro keeps 97L so weak, even at 120 hours? Outflow from Earl? The southward trend seems concerning, but the intensity forecast seems to be the silver lining.

Keep in mind that intensity forecasting is nothing more than a shot in the dark. It is bar far the LEAST accurate of the forecast package.

[Ivanhater]

It show 969 MB...not weak at all. It may come in weaker in the next few frames with it going over Cuba though

[Ivanhater]

168 hours

[CrazyC83]

969mb there given its size would be about 90 kt.

[Scorpion]

That is one solid high. Looks like another CV storm is forming too.

[Ivanhater]

192 hours ..in the Gulf emerging of the NW tip of Cuba

[South Texas Storms]

are there any approaching troughs on that euro run?

[Plant grower]

168 hours

Ike track and then in the gulf?

[SFLcane]

Looks like an Ike 2008 track

[Duke95]

Isn't it at 996 mb at 120? 969 is at 144 hours.