ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I know it is 5 days off and is subjective to change. I notice the 5 day cone has Earl over New York City area. If Earl was still a major hurricane and hit the New York area it would be really catastrophic!

Even a Category 1 hurricane going over NYC would likely do billions in damage and a high death toll.

[Steve Cosby]

Bastardi is saying that the models are right biased because of the water being "uncommonly warm" but also the inherent weaknesses in the models - primarily the GFS with its feedback problems.

Bottom line is this: he is calling for an "impact event" for the east coast - at least minimal hurricane force for outer banks and Cape Cod.

That assumes, however, that the hurricane does not correct further west from its current position which is getting more possible all the time given the 12z UKMET and WRF.

He also still thinks Fiona is going to be a southeast coast event (Florida).

Looks like Labor Day on the east coast is going to be a bust one way or the other. The gulf coast may be a better choice for that holiday. Lord knows they need some help.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Even a Category 1 hurricane going over NYC would likely do billions in damage and a high death toll.

I was just in NYC last month. I hope that years from now, I won't be referring to it as my visit to "pre-Earl New York"

[Aric Dunn]

well the 12Z CMC is makes it to the central bahamas before starting to turn...quite a bit farther west then the 00z .. yeah its the cmc.. lol

[artist]

well the 12Z CMC is makes it to the central bahamas before starting to turn...quite a bit farther west then the 00z .. yeah its the cmc.. lol

I thought the cmc had been pretty good with the synoptics anymore?

[Ivanhater]

well the 12Z CMC is makes it to the central bahamas before starting to turn...quite a bit farther west then the 00z .. yeah its the cmc.. lol

I thought the cmc had been pretty good with the synoptics anymore?

It has. It is the best performing model the past 2 years past 72 hours.

[tronbunny]

Even a Category 1 hurricane going over NYC would likely do billions in damage and a high death toll.

I was just in NYC last month. I hope that years from now, I won't be referring to it as my visit to "pre-Earl New York"

I prefer not to post about 'feelings' here, but that statement gave me goosebumps.

[CrazyC83]

With the update to the cone being eastward this morning, is it safe to rule out a OBX/Mid atlantic landfall from earl?

Or is it possible the cone could re shift west just like it did to the islands over the past few days, and those in NC/Mid atlantic could be taken for surprise and be affected by this.

I have extra interest in this because I'm from Washington DC area.

Responses appreciated, thank you!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is TOTALLY UNOFFICIAL, but here is my thinking for you:

Unlike with Isabel, this is likely to be recurving after or near a potential landfall. That would most likely put the DC area (and all of the I-95 corridor) on the weaker side of the storm, which is normally considerably weaker at the speeds storms move once they move into the mid-latitudes. For significant impact in that region in a recurving storm, landfall would have to be down around Wilmington NC, and it would have to hold its strength inland. The greatest impact there should be inland flooding.

The greatest wind and surge threat if Earl followed the western edge of the cone would likely be in eastern North Carolina (especially the Outer Banks), perhaps the Hampton Roads area (if Earl makes landfall), parts of Long Island and the Cape Cod and Islands region of Massachusetts.

[Aric Dunn]

well the 12Z CMC is makes it to the central bahamas before starting to turn...quite a bit farther west then the 00z .. yeah its the cmc.. lol

I thought the cmc had been pretty good with the synoptics anymore?

It has. It is the best performing model the past 2 years past 72 hours.

yeah synoptics good... tropical systems in those large scale synoptics... not so good.. but is still worth noting ..

so yeah the 12z is about 200 miles west of 00z..

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Well I see some fellow North Carolinians checking in. Starting my preparations here in Wilmington today.

[emeraldislencguy]

yes folks in nc are really starting to pay attention
own a buisiness at the beach and that is all the topic of conversation today
people are really paying attention now

[Swimdude]

Even a Category 1 hurricane going over NYC would likely do billions in damage and a high death toll.

I was just in NYC last month. I hope that years from now, I won't be referring to it as my visit to "pre-Earl New York"

I prefer not to post about 'feelings' here, but that statement gave me goosebumps.

I'm not one to pipe in very often these days, but I think we should be careful about statements like these--remember, many newbies could take these as predictions or high possibilities, which they currently are not...

Anyway, not my job to moderate!

As far as Earl is concerned, I fear that he will likely intensify more than previous suspected. Honestly, this is based on nothing more than satellite presentation and the NHC's history of more conservative intensity forecasts than what actually transpired. (See the 2005 season for abundant examples. Or even Danielle for that matter.) As for the track, I'm stumped.

[SunnyThoughts]

[EyELeSs1]

Earl ramping up and moving west. Now Raw T# up to 4.4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2010 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 17:14:40 N Lon : 58:41:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.5mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.3 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Center Temp : -70.6C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Sanibel]

The early models were wrong with Earl. Antigua and Anguilla should get a strong swipe or even direct hurricane hit. Anegada in the British Virgins is under the gun if the recurve doesn't happen as sharply as predicted.

Look at the hazy look to Earl and better structure. It is telegraphing an intensity increase.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Outerbands getting into the actual Islands of the NE Lesser Antilles now. Here comes Earl, hope eveyone stays safe.

[CrazyC83]

Recon just reported a pressure of 978mb extrapolated.

[chris_fit]

Recon just reported a pressure of 978mb extrapolated.

That's what 8mb down in the last 2-3 hours?

[ColinDelia]

Up close

[terrapintransit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html