ATL: EARL - Models

[emeraldislencguy]

michael
how much stock do you place in the canadian model
please post asap

[Ivanhater]

michael
how much stock do you place in the canadian model
please post asap

Canadian has been the best performing model the last 2 years after 72 hours, so I put a lot of stock in it.

[shah8]

Canadian and euro have been pretty similar and they're both good. Euro tends to over do ridges and Candadian tends to spin up spurious storms and sometimes erode ridges too quickly. They're different enough that the two agreeing well has to be weighted heavily. This model isn't the final answer because there is a continued westward shift. Once that westward shift in model prognosis ends, we should have a good idea of what will happen.

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks michael
i really do appreciate all of your hard work and for your advice
people here at emerald isle are really talking about earl and wondering what they should do
especially those who have second homes here and want be back till Labor day weekend
some are wondering if they should take in their lawn furniture before leaivng this aftenroon

[UpTheCreek]

thanks michael
i really do appreciate all of your hard work and for your advice
people here at emerald isle are really talking about earl and wondering what they should do
especially those who have second homes here and want be back till Labor day weekend
some are wondering if they should take in their lawn furniture before leaivng this aftenroon

Expect the worst and hope for the best......always the best advice!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Canadian

Looks to be becoming extratropical & merging with the trough by the end of the run. Still an impressive storm, that much is certain.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can i have a link to the canadian please?

[UpTheCreek]

Can i have a link to the canadian please?

Here's a loop if that helps:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

If the CMC shifts west like it did at the 12Z a couple of more times, it certainly puts Earl very close the the SE Coast of Florida. I'm hoping it doesn't shift any more than this.

That said, east winds are blowing very strong across SE Florida this weekend. A strong low-level ridge to the north seems to be in place.

[xironman]

Euro @ 48hrs


72 hrs.

[jlauderdal]

If the CMC shifts west like it did at the 12Z a couple of more times, it certainly puts Earl very close the the SE Coast of Florida. I'm hoping it doesn't shift any more than this.

That said, east winds are blowing very strong across SE Florida this weekend. A strong low-level ridge to the north seems to be in place.

they ran a mission out there yesterday, they know where the edge of the ridge is

[Ivanhater]

48 hour 12z Euro

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

48 hour 12z Euro

Wow, EURO still going with Earl bombing out to the 932 mb range.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can i have a link to the canadian please?

Here's a loop if that helps:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Thank you! Yup, that helped.

[shah8]

Found from another place that the 00z euro today has Chatham, MA at 192, when I was asking for it. Take that as you will...

[hurricanedude]

once this thing clears the islands...this topic thread will go anemic...as there arent nearly as many EC posters as florida and GOM'ers.....a major hurricane still possible to come close to Mid Atlantic and New England want get the attention that the gulf states get

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So true. All of the attention will be towards 97L, especially after the last couple of Euro runs.

[artist]

not from me! i have friends in DC area.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

not from me! i have friends in DC area.

Indeed, I'm with Earl every step of the way from this point onwards I'll update my Weather Blog twice a day (or more as each land area comes under the gun):

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

[lester]

lol