ATL: EARL - Models

[CrazyC83]

Basically that solution is Saxby Gale II...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Basically that solution is Saxby Gale II...

I know, and that is what frightens me..

I've been through all the old archives & studies published since, on both sides of the border, and this area really took it on the chin in 1869 from all reports.

[LAwxrgal]

^ What is Saxby Gale, for those of us who aren't northerners?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

^ What is Saxby Gale, for those of us who aren't northerners?

This:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1869_Saxby_Gale

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

^ What is Saxby Gale, for those of us who aren't northerners?

This:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1869_Saxby_Gale

Here is the abstrate of a study I have a full hardcopy of, which goes into more detail:

http://www.shunpiking.com/ol0103/03SaxbyGale11869RUFFMAN.htm

There was also a cat 3 that hit Southern Maine earlier that same year (September 22nd), so it was a rough season 'round these parts.

[LAwxrgal]

Cool, thanks! Storms that strong do hit that far to the north, just not as often. Ok.

[Stephanie]

The majority of big storms that the Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Eastern Canada/Nova Scotia sees are the dreaded Nor'easters. They can and have produced hurricane force winds.

This part of the region is always brought up when there is discussion of areas not prepared for and are over due for a hurricane strike.

[artist]

The majority of big storms that the Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Eastern Canada/Nova Scotia sees are the dreaded Nor'easters. They can and have produced hurricane force winds.

This part of the region is always brought up when there is discussion of areas not prepared for and are over due for a hurricane strike.

yeah, Stephanie, my sis lives in CO and they deal with the westerlies every year, some of which produce cat 1 winds fairly often there. They think nothing of it, other than worrying about losing a car door when they open it! Hopefully this will miss the ne coast.

[x-y-no]

This should be interesting ... much less of a weakness in this run of the GFS, and the western ridge looks stronger ...

[gatorcane]

X-y-no yeah that is interesting. If you compare to even the 06z there is a pretty big difference.

[x-y-no]

Huh ... well it actually erodes the ridge faster - keeps Earl well offshore.

Maybe the model trend is finally reversing ...

[chris_fit]

Is that a new GFS run coming out?

[gatorcane]

Ridging suddenly collapses at 48 hours. Gfs moves earl nnw. Seems strange the ridge can just collapse so quickly

[Evil Jeremy]

Ridging suddenly collapses at 48 hours. Gfs moves earl nnw. Seems strange the ridge can just collapse so quickly

Its the GFS. It generally underestimates ridging and tries to break it down.

[Danny MD]

With the update to the cone being eastward this morning, is it safe to rule out a OBX/Mid atlantic landfall from earl?

Or is it possible the cone could re shift west just like it did to the islands over the past few days, and those in NC/Mid atlantic could be taken for surprise and be affected by this.

I have extra interest in this because I'm from Washington DC area.

Responses appreciated, thank you!

[Ivanhater]

Danny, you already posted that question in the Earl discussion thread and have been answered. No need to keep posting the same question in different threads.

[Ivanhater]

New Canadian hits PR and hits the outer banks and Cape cod

[Riptide]

New Canadian scrapes PR and hits the outer banks

Excuse me?
EDIT: Bah god, that is insane.

[shah8]

A certain sphincter clenches. I've long disagreed with KWT about Earl moving out quickly being a cause for Fiona to be strong. I think Earl doing a 1938 will slow the progression of troughs enough for the sea ridge to bridge the SE US ridge.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian