ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[ROCK]

anyone having problems with the ghcc site? I can't get it to work for looping.

wayy to many hits...our server here was on the blink a few minutes ago...

[HURAKAN]

Becoming a beautiful and terrifying storm

[LAwxrgal]

Becoming a beautiful and terrifying storm

There's the dreaded comma shape forming. You know that's a hurricane. I hope the folks in the islands are prepared.

[Stephanie]

Looks like an eye is forming as well. Looks stronger than a Cat 1 IMHO.

[jinftl]

Probability of sustained winds (34kt=39mph, 50kt=58mph, 64kt=74mph) the NHC reported with the 11am update:

Barbuda and St. Maarten have almost a 50% chance of seeing sustained hurricane force winds....and over a 90% chance of sustained t.s. force winds. The hurricane warning is more than in order given the track forecast.

As of now, San Juan has a 4% chance of sustained hurricane force winds and a 39% chance of sustained t.s. force winds. We will need to watch these numbers very carefully with each new update from the NHC.


BARBUDA 34KT 96%
BARBUDA 50KT 71%
BARBUDA 64KT 44%

SAINT MAARTEN 34KT 91%
SAINT MAARTEN 50KT 67%
SAN MAARTEN 64KT 42%

ANTIGUA 34KT 77%
ANTIGUA 50KT 29%
ANTIGUA 64KT 12%

SAINT KITTS-NEVIS 34KT 71%
SAINT KITTS-NEVIS 50KT 25%
SAINT KITTS-NEVIS 64KT 10%

SAINT THOMAS 34KT 58%
SAINT THOMAS 50KT 25%
SAN THOMAS 64KT 11%

SAN JUAN 34KT 39%
SAN JUAN 50KT 10%
SAN JUAN 64KT 4%

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1455.shtml?

[cycloneye]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

the window is closing for the time being....as he deepening though the window opens more..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

At the same time rock it Earl does make contact with Puerto Rico and weakens some then that could even close the weakness even faster. The models continue to intensify it fast but if Earl has all this land interaction then it won't intensify nearly as much.

Luis could tell us better how a storm interact with PR...such a small island...I guess the core would need to go right down the spine for any disruption to happen....it would be very temporary though...

Here is an example of how a hurricane moving thru land in Puerto Rico can weaken,but not a whole lot because the mountains are not very tall,the highest peak is 4,338 feet. Now,if it goes thru Hispanola,that is another story as the mountains are much higher.Look what happens to Georges after is emerges over the water.

[HURAKAN]

982 mb in this pass, winds haven't responded yet

[paintplaye]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

the window is closing for the time being....as he deepening though the window opens more..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

At the same time rock it Earl does make contact with Puerto Rico and weakens some then that could even close the weakness even faster. The models continue to intensify it fast but if Earl has all this land interaction then it won't intensify nearly as much.

Luis could tell us better how a storm interact with PR...such a small island...I guess the core would need to go right down the spine for any disruption to happen....it would be very temporary though...

Here is an example of how a hurricane moving thru land in Puerto Rico can weaken,but not a whole lot because the mountains are not very tall,the highest peak is 4,338 feet. Now,if it goes thru Hispanola,that is another story as the mountains are much higher.Look what happens to Georges after is emerges over the water.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/sju/even ... rlarge.gif[/quote]

Yea I was mainly indicating the strengthening would not be as much as some of the models show which could limit the weakness. At least for a temporary time.

[HUC]

To all friends I will post my observations on the thread open by cycloneye for this matter;

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm.. the last 3 center fixes showing a just south of due west motion... lol

well maybe not.. the first 2 showed a position just south of due west now this one seems straight west ...

[chris_fit]

hmmm.. the last 3 center fixes showing a just south of due west motion... lol

Most recent fix shows signs of a northern component...

[sevenleft]

hmmm.. the last 3 center fixes showing a just south of due west motion... lol

well maybe not.. the first 2 showed a position just south of due west now this one seems straight west ...

The motion between the 1st fix and 3rd fix is 280. The 2nd fix was a wobble to the south.

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm.. the last 3 center fixes showing a just south of due west motion... lol

Most recent fix shows signs of a northern component...

hehe wobbles wobbles ...lol

[cycloneye]

Every wobble is huge for the islands getting more or less.

[Aric Dunn]

Every wobble is huge for the islands getting more or less.

exactly..

[cheezyWXguy]

hmmm.. the last 3 center fixes showing a just south of due west motion... lol

Most recent fix shows signs of a northern component...

hehe wobbles wobbles ...lol

Yep, and on top of that, a VDM doesnt necessarily mean the absolute center of the eye. This storms eye will likely be between 10 and 20mi wide, and they could have intercepted the southern portion of the center on the second fix, and possibly the northern section on the third. The motion is still about as west as it gets, and if this continues along with the strengthening we are observing, the islands, and even potentially the east coast in a few days, are about to have a big problem.

[HURAKAN]

Trends are what's more important. If the next fix is north of the last, then it may be moving WNW but if it's west or SW of the last one, then it's likely going W or just south of due W.

[MortisFL]

I agree, getting close to PR. Going to get some squalls at the least.

[MGC]

Earl's satellite presentation continues to improve...looks like the hurricane is getting his act together in a timely fashion....might even become a Cat-2 before entering the islands.....MGC

[jinftl]

A short-term wobble or a heading of 275 deg instead of 280 deg could have big implications for the islands for sure....but what is forecast to cause the gradual turn to the wnw is Earl reaching the periphery of the ridge that has been steering him west. What is forecast to turn the system north and hopefully northeast is a completely different atmospheric system- a trough that will be approaching later this week from the Great Lakes.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT. EARL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
A NORTHWARD MOTION.

In other words, if Earl moves 50 miles further west in the next day or so than currently forecast, that doesn't necessarily mean that the entire forecast for the rest of the week is shifted west.

Wobbles matter for the islands right now....but when you consider the 250 mile+ margin or error for the 5-day forecast position, esp when the atmospheric dynamics are not even close to materializing yet, these same short-term wobbles are part of the 'noise/margin of error' for the forecast down the road.

Yep, and on top of that, a VDM doesnt necessarily mean the absolute center of the eye. This storms eye will likely be between 10 and 20mi wide, and they could have intercepted the southern portion of the center on the second fix, and possibly the northern section on the third. The motion is still about as west as it gets, and if this continues along with the strengthening we are observing, the islands, and even potentially the east coast in a few days, are about to have a big problem.